In August, Russian President Vladimir Putin was seen with President Trump in Alaska, seemingly amused as a B-2 stealth bomber flew overhead. He seemed to understand there was a message in that moment, though the full extent of Trump’s intent wasn’t entirely clear to him at the time.
Fast forward a couple of months, and the implications of that B-2 flyover have crystallized. Trump’s decision to launch strikes against Iran’s primary nuclear sites—Fordor, Isfahan, and Natanz—appears to be a strategic move aimed not only at altering dynamics in the Middle East but also in Eastern Europe. This was, in many ways, a significant shift in the ongoing tensions between Putin, Xi Jinping, and the West.
During a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in Egypt, Trump emphasized that the groundwork for this deal followed the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, which certainly reshaped the landscape.
As Hamas finds itself without crucial support from Iran and is increasingly isolated from Türkiye and Qatar, its options are dwindling. Israel’s threats to reclaim Gaza City linger, but Trump has indicated he would involve himself in this matter regardless of any formal agreement.
Moscow is reeling. With Iran, a central ally, weakened and Syria’s pro-Russian government ousted, Putin is watching from the sidelines in the Middle East. His isolation became evident when he canceled an Arab conference in Moscow originally set for October 15 due to a lack of attendance, according to reports.
In stark contrast, Trump’s activities in the region have involved fruitful discussions with leaders from countries such as Qatar, Jordan, and Kuwait, alongside major NATO figures. In Egypt, he has presented himself as a significant player, further emphasizing Putin’s waning influence in the Arab world.
Team Trump is capitalizing on the situation with the ongoing ceasefire momentum. Inviting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the Oval Office shortly after returning from Egypt sends a message to Putin: the Kremlin’s game is changing. Meanwhile, the delivery of messages to Hamas could mirror how military resources have been utilized against Iran.
After winning a second term last November, we suggested Trump could navigate a complex global landscape. Instead of focusing solely on Ukraine, his administration pivoted towards engaging in the Middle East through the Abraham Accords, which puts pressure not just on Putin, but also on Beijing.
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto was also a key participant in Egypt, engaging with Trump. With the largest Muslim population globally, Indonesia has been encouraged to engage with the Abraham Accords, which would strengthen Washington’s position against China.
Although affirming the “One China” policy doesn’t necessarily mean endorsing China’s ambitions regarding Taiwan, if Trump can persuade Subianto to join the accords, it could bolster support for Taiwan’s defense.
To secure the Indo-Pacific, success in Ukraine is still crucial. Striking Putin doesn’t guarantee a straightforward negotiation, rather it requires a series of strategic steps to influence Moscow that can ultimately diminish both Putin and Xi’s reach.
One of these strategies could include authorizing the sale of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, enhancing its capacity to target critical locations in the region. Implementing a no-fly zone could also help protect Ukrainian airspace and critical infrastructure.
Additionally, blocking Russian oil and gas transport routes through the Baltic Sea would send a strong signal. Many vessels are purportedly involved in circumventing sanctions and could have connections to aggressive actions against other nations.
Enacting sanctions on Russia through Senate approval would further pressure Putin, whose economy is already under strain due to the ongoing conflict.
Trump’s strikes on Iran represented a bold step towards navigating this complex global conflict. By sidelining Putin and diminishing Iran’s and Hamas’s positions, the focus now shifts to the broader implications of these actions.
To secure both the Indo-Pacific and address Chinese expansionism regarding Taiwan, Trump must decisively address the situation in Eastern Europe, with the aim of liberating Ukrainian territory.
With momentum on his side, Trump needs to convey to President Xi that he is intent on uprooting Putin’s influence and transforming the geopolitical landscape instigated by both Russia and China.
