As we approach election day—just two weeks left—recent polls indicate a tight race for the New Jersey governor’s seat, with both major party candidates rallying their supporters to vote. “If we vote, we will win,” said Democratic candidate Rep. Mikie Sherrill during a rally last weekend. Her Republican counterpart, Jack Ciattarelli, rallied his followers with a similar sentiment: “The winning team will finish strong…Let’s win this race.”
New Jersey, along with Virginia, will be holding a gubernatorial election this November. Traditionally drawing significant national attention, this election is viewed as an early measure of President Trump’s ongoing agenda and a critical bellwether for next year’s midterms in the U.S. Congress.
This November, political eyes are also on high-stakes races in New York, a ballot proposal about Congressional redistricting in California, and several state Supreme Court challenges in Pennsylvania. Democrats are keen to spotlight their recent successes in this year’s special elections, hoping to rebound after last year’s setbacks where they lost control of the White House and Senate.
“The wind is at our back,” said Ken Martin, the Democratic National Committee Chairman. “We’ve outperformed in every election counted since Trump took office.” But Republicans point out challenges faced by Democrats. “Sadly for the DNC, Democratic approval ratings are at a 30-year low, and they’ve lost over 2 million voters in the last four years,” noted Zach Parkinson, Communications Director for the Republican National Committee.
New Jersey
Jack Ciattarelli, who has campaigned for governor in New Jersey for three years and nearly unseated Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy previously, is feeling hopeful about this year’s race. Despite a higher number of registered Democrats, polls from Fox News, Quinnipiac University, and Fairleigh Dickinson University show Ciattarelli narrowing the gap against Sherrill, the Democratic hopeful aiming to succeed term-limited Murphy.
The recent Fox News poll conducted between October 10 and 14 revealed that Sherrill’s approval among voters stood at 50%, while Ciattarelli trailed at 45%, his lead having shrunk from 8 points previously. Democrats have dominated elections in New Jersey, but Republicans have been competitive in recent gubernatorial contests, winning five of the last ten.
Even as Trump won New Jersey by a notable margin in the last presidential election, he did improve his standings significantly, losing by just 6 points—a marked rise from a 16-point loss the previous election cycle.
It seems Trump is planning to connect with Ciattarelli before election day; a partnership that might energize his supporters, many of whom tend to skip voting in non-presidential years. Complicating the race, there have been reports suggesting that Sherrill’s military file was mistakenly released, which included sensitive personal information, raising tensions further.
In the heat of the campaign, Sherrill accused Ciattarelli of “colluding” with drug companies linked to opioid-related deaths among New Jersey residents, citing promotional content for opioids from a medical publisher he owns. Recently, Trump stirred the pot further by threatening to withhold federal funding for the Gateway project, which aims to improve rail connections between New Jersey and New York, a move that got Sherrill’s attention as she highlighted the project’s significance.
Virginia
The Virginia governor’s race is facing its own set of controversies, particularly regarding the attorney general bid. Most polls indicate the Republican candidate, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earl Sears, holding a significant advantage over his Democratic rival, Abigail Spanberger. This situation has forced Spanberger into a defensive position regarding her Democratic counterpart, Jay Jones.
Jones has come under fire for a controversial text comparing a Republican politician to historical figures known for their atrocities. An apology has been issued, but calls for him to step down continue. Meanwhile, Earl Sears seized the opportunity to link Spanberger to these comments during the only debate this month, adding to the pressure on her.
New York City
In what could be a historic election, New York City is poised to potentially elect the nation’s first Muslim and Millennial mayor. Democratic Socialist state representative Zoran Mamdani made waves by winning the Democratic primary, but has found himself challenged due to his progressive proposals as he faces off against former governor Andrew Cuomo, who is seeking a comeback after leaving office amid scandals.
Cuomo is running as an independent after finishing second in the primary, while Curtis Sliwa, a two-time Republican candidate, is also in the mix. Mayor Eric Adams, who initially sought re-election as an independent, has withdrawn but will still appear on ballots.
California
In California, voters will have a say on whether to set aside the bipartisan redistricting commission, allowing the Democratic-controlled Legislature to manage congressional redistricting for the next several electoral cycles. Governor Gavin Newsom’s administration is pushing for this change to create more left-leaning districts in counter to new conservative maps drawn in Texas, a struggle seen nationwide.
Polling indicates a majority in favor of what is being called Proposition 50.
Pennsylvania
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court currently has a 5-2 Democratic majority, but three justices are facing retention votes this year. This election could significantly influence the court’s makeup and its stance on crucial issues like voting rights and reproductive rights. State Supreme Court elections usually receive little attention nationally, but they can attract considerable funding, especially in battleground states.
