Republican candidates faced significant losses in the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, along with the New York mayoral election. These outcomes are expected to have noteworthy impacts both locally and nationally.
These elections provide a glimpse into voter sentiment as we head toward the 2026 midterms, where Democrats might manage to flip five House seats, especially following the successful passing of a gerrymandering bill in California, Proposition 50, which was backed by Governor Gavin Newsom.
Interestingly, voter animosity towards former President Donald Trump continues to mobilize many Americans, particularly younger voters and young women, who seem drawn to more radical candidates.
New York City
In New York, socialist Zoran Mamdani triumphed in the mayoral race, garnering over 50% of the vote and defeating Republican Curtis Sliwa by 43.3 points, as well as outpacing former Governor Andrew Cuomo by nearly 9 points.
As CNN’s exit polls indicate, Mamdani’s progressive populism clearly struck a chord with many voters, particularly the younger demographic, in a city where living costs overshadow concerns about crime and illegal immigration.
Mamdani’s campaign promoted initiatives like rent freezes for stable tenants, the construction of affordable housing, higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations, and raising the minimum wage. Additionally, he opposed the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement efforts.
Among voters who prioritized immigration and crime, many supported Cuomo, while a strong 66% of those focused on living costs sided with Mamdani. Further breakdown of support showed:
- 65% disapproval of Trump, with only 8% in support.
- 33% held a negative view of the Democratic Party, versus 65% who viewed it favorably.
- 46% of white voters and 54% of nonwhite voters supported him.
- 69% of voters were under 44, with 84% of those under 30 being women.
- 75% of unaffiliated voters, along with notable support from Jewish, Catholic, and Protestant voters.
- 82% of non-heterosexual voters expressed their support.
- 82% of votes came from people who had lived in New York City for under a decade.
- 65% were first-time voters.
Despite Trump’s prominent role in Virginia, New Jersey, and California elections, only 40% of New York’s voters indicated he influenced their mayoral choice. Yet, notably, 76% of those who voted for Mamdani also voted for Trump at some point.
New Jersey
In New Jersey, Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill defeated Republican Jack Ciatarelli with a decisive 56.2% to 43.2%, marking a larger defeat than Ciatarelli’s previous campaign against Governor Phil Murphy in 2021, where he lost by just over 3 points.
Exit polls reflected Sherrill’s strength among women, nonwhite individuals, and college graduates, benefiting from widespread voter discontent with the Republican leadership.
Support statistics reveal:
- 77% of nonwhite voters and 47% of white voters backed Sherrill.
- 67% of voters under 44 and 51% of those over 45 supported her.
- 94% of liberal voters and 62% of moderate voters backed her, while only 11% of conservatives did.
- 62% of female voters and a remarkable 81% of women under 30 cast their votes for her.
- 62% of voters held a college degree.
Voters expressing concern over the economy under the Democratic administration leaned towards Ciatarelli, while those who believed the situation was good largely backed Sherrill.
A significant 88% of voters who felt positive about national conditions voted for Ciatarelli, reflecting a broader trend where dissatisfaction with Trump swayed many towards Sherrill, who enjoyed 93% support from those disapproving of him.
Virginia
Democrat Abigail Spanberger secured a win over Republican Winsome Earl Sears in Virginia, achieving 57.5% to 42.3%. Like Mamdani, Spanberger found considerable support among younger voters and benefitted from economic distress and anti-Trump sentiments.
Exit polls indicated her support base encompassed:
- 65% of women, including 81% of those under 30.
- 92% of Black voters, 67% of Hispanic voters, 79% of Asian voters, and 47% of white voters.
- 63% of college graduates.
- Majorities across income demographics, with 56% earning over $50,000 and 62% under.
- 82% of nonwhite voters and 47% of white voters.
Voter concerns about federal budget cuts impacting personal finances led 69% of those affected to choose Spanberger. Interestingly, in contrast to New Jersey, voters who felt the economy was improving leaned Republican, whereas most of those who felt negatively supported Spanberger.
When asked about the state’s most pressing issue, a significant 48% cited the economy, with a substantial 63% of that group voting Democratic. Voters expressing anger over national conditions predominantly sided with Democrats, while an overwhelming 99% of those who said opposition to Trump influenced their votes backed Spanberger.
Notably, some voters critical of the Democratic Party still found themselves supporting Spanberger.
California
In California, a notable 51% of voters expressed antipathy towards Trump, with 98% supporting Proposition 50, aimed at ending gerrymandering. According to exit polls, 64% disapproved of Trump’s job performance, while only 9% from this group voted against Proposition 50. Moreover, 63% believed Trump’s immigration policies exceeded acceptable limits, suggesting that Newsom should not collaborate with federal authorities.
Younger women under 30 remained a consistent support base for Democrats, with 83% backing the anti-gerrymandering bill.
