Hispanic and Latino voters in New Jersey shifted significantly towards Mikie Sherrill, negating GOP advancements for 2024, according to data.

Republican Gains Among New Jersey Latinos Disappear in Gubernatorial Race

This year’s gubernatorial race in New Jersey highlighted a concerning trend for Republicans, as they lost significant support among Latino and Hispanic voters, paving the way for Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill’s victory and raising alarms for the party ahead of the midterm elections.

Exit polling indicated that Sherrill garnered over 68% of the support from Hispanic voters, while only 31% backed her opponent. This stark contrast follows a 2024 presidential election where President Trump narrowly defeated Vice President Kamala Harris by just five points on a national scale. Some Hispanic-heavy areas in New Jersey even leaned Republican by up to 33 points.

However, during this election, the three counties with the highest Hispanic populations—Cumberland, Hudson, and Passaic—shifted away from Republicans by significant margins of 7.9, 22, and 18 percentage points, respectively.

Mika Rasmussen, who leads the Lebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University, noted, “It seems like voters are open to shifting based on whether they feel their needs are being addressed.” He added that while ethnic appeals often matter, sometimes broader issues—such as the economy and inflation—resonate more widely.

Passaic County, which has a Hispanic population of around 45%, previously supported Joe Biden by 16 points in 2020, Phil Murphy by 4 points in 2021, and Trump by a slim margin last year. In this election, Sherrill managed to turn the tide, leading Passaic by 15 points.

In municipalities where over 60% of residents identified as Hispanic, Sherrill effectively erased the gains made by Trump in 2024, and even those achieved with Murphy’s backing in 2021.

Republican political consultant Alex Wilkes remarked that the Ciattarelli campaign’s efforts to engage Hispanic voters through building partnerships over four years ultimately fell short on Election Day.

Prominent Hispanic Republicans warned that without a shift, future elections could spell trouble for the party. Representative Maria Elvira Salazar expressed concern, stating, “We are witnessing Hispanics who contributed to Trump’s victory moving away from us.” She highlighted a crucial point: for states like New Jersey and Virginia to become competitive, it’s vital to engage Hispanic communities within the Republican framework.

Former Rep. Myra Flores took a more alarming stance, emphasizing that the Republican Party’s future within Hispanic communities is precarious.

Meanwhile, strategist Jeanate Hoffman highlighted that Ciattarelli faced challenges he didn’t have in previous years. With Trump and outside Democratic influences no longer on the ballot, voters might be more driven to voice their opinions on the GOP’s actions. “Trump’s absence as a front-runner certainly changes the landscape,” she noted, referencing the negative impacts of immigration policies on community sentiments.

Dan Cassino, a political science professor, suggested that the recent shift among Hispanic voters might relate more to turnout issues than to broader persuasion. “Turnout has been notably low during recent elections in these areas,” he explained. Cassino proposed that the current dynamic illustrates a ‘thermostatic’ reaction in public opinion; essentially, as government moves one way, voter sentiment pushes back.