California’s Gubernatorial Race: A Shift Towards Republicans?

Recent polling indicates that California, traditionally leaning Democratic, might consider electing a Republican governor for the first time in two decades, thanks to its primary voting structure.

California has utilized a “top-two” primary system for over ten years, where candidates from all parties compete together, and the top two advance to the general election. With several Democrats lacking a definitive front-runner in the 2026 gubernatorial race, two notable Republicans—Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News host Steve Hilton—might secure both positions on the general election ballot. Both candidates have shared their thoughts on the campaign.

According to a recent Emerson College poll, Bianco is currently leading the all-party primary with 13% of voters, while Hilton and Democratic California Congressman Eric Swalwell both have 12%. Scandal-plagued Democratic former Rep. Katie Porter follows with 11%, then comes former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa at 5%, while billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer and former Health Secretary Xavier Becerra each have 4%. Notably, 31% of voters remain undecided, and 7% support other candidates in the running to succeed term-limited Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom.

Bianco described the situation as a “perfect storm” for Republicans, noting that the Democratic candidates appear to be in disarray. He reflected on his initial decision to enter the race, emphasizing that he foresaw the competition mainly involving Democrats. Once he announced his candidacy, there weren’t any other prominent Republican contenders, and soon after, Hilton joined the race.

In a different interview, Hilton expressed skepticism about the possibility of both him and Bianco advancing to the general election, suggesting that the California Democratic Party wouldn’t allow such a scenario. He stated, “The political reality is that there’s no chance of that actually happening,” asserting that Democrats would not let their candidates become too fragmented.

On the other hand, Bianco maintains that a Republican-only final in California isn’t just a dream; rather, it’s “legally, numerically and mathematically” feasible. He pointed out that the Democratic Party, currently lacking strong leadership, is in disarray, which could play into Republican hands. He commented on the absence of a clear leader among Democrats and how, historically, someone would emerge as a fallback candidate.

Moreover, Bianco criticized Governor Newsom, dubbing him “the biggest narcissist in the world,” who allegedly believes no one else can take over his role. Reflecting on the current situation, he feels optimistic about his chances and thinks Hilton could very well take the second spot, which could be beneficial for California overall.

Other Democratic candidates in the race include notable figures like former Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon, Public Leadership Director Tony Thurmond, and others. Interestingly, former Vice President Kamala Harris announced that she would not run for governor.

Hilton mentioned that if he entered the race, he expected to face off against either Porter, Swalwell, Steyer, or Bonta in the general election.

A recent poll from the University of California, Berkeley, also revealed two Republican candidates in proximity to the general election spots, reinforcing the feeling that there’s no Democratic frontrunner. It’s interesting to note that no Republican has won a governor’s election in California since Arnold Schwarzenegger’s re-election in 2006.

Hilton remarked that California has significantly shifted towards left-leaning politics since adopting the top-two primary system. He referred to the state as a testing ground for far-left policies, which he believes have yielded dismal results regarding affordability, unemployment, and poverty rates.

“The situation has produced more extremism, the opposite of the moderate outcomes that were initially promised,” he stated, alluding to the negative impacts on both the state and broader country.

Voters approved the top-two primary system in a 2010 initiative, which aimed to make elections more inclusive, but Bianco and Hilton both criticized the model, suggesting it undermines the democratic process in California. Hilton expressed determination to advocate for positive change while acknowledging the need to work within the existing system.

Overall, if a Republican were to win the governor’s seat, Hilton said it would signal a resounding rejection of the Democratic Party’s long-standing dominance. He emphasized that after 16 years of one-party rule, it might be time for Democrats to reconsider their strategies, as moving further left hasn’t proven favorable.

In addition to California, other states, like Louisiana and Washington, employ variations of the top-two primary system, which has resulted in all-Democrat general elections in previous years. Whether California’s unique primary model will yield different outcomes in 2026 remains to be seen.