Mass Murders in the U.S. Projected to Decrease by 2025

By 2025, the United States is expected to see 17 mass murders, marking the lowest count since 2006. This statistic comes from a national database that keeps tabs on such events.

This database is collaboratively produced by the Associated Press, USA Today, and Northeastern University. Mass murder is defined in this context as an event where four or more individuals, excluding the assailant, are deliberately killed within a single 24-hour timeframe.

While this year’s mass killings didn’t all involve guns, a significant number did. Out of the 17 projected incidents for 2025, 14 were committed with firearms. There are no specifics on the three cases that didn’t use guns, but typically, mass homicides not involving firearms are linked to stabbings, arson, blunt force attacks, or using vehicles as weapons.

Recent Incidents Highlight Ongoing Concerns

Recent incidents include a shooting during a high school football homecoming game in Mississippi that resulted in six deaths and 20 injuries, along with four suspects being arrested.

James Alan Fox, a criminologist at Northeastern University, who helps oversee the database, noted a 24% decrease this year compared to 2024 and a 20% drop from 2023.

However, Fox sounded a note of caution regarding whether this trend will hold. “Totals can vary widely from year to year, and some fluctuations might give an illusion of significant change,” he explained. He remained uncertain about whether we’ll continue to see a decline in 2026, saying, “What goes down must go up again.”

James Densley, a professor at Minnesota Metropolitan State University, speculated that the decline could merely reflect a reduction in the number of mass murders each year. “There are only a few dozen mass murders annually, so minor changes can look substantial,” he told his audience. While 2025 appears to be a promising year statistically, it doesn’t necessarily mean the issue has been resolved.

He also pointed out that the current decline might correspond with lower rates of homicide and violent crime across the country in the wake of the surge seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Moreover, improved immediate response protocols during mass casualty events may also play a role in reducing the numbers. For instance, the August shooting at Annunciation Catholic Church in Minnesota resulted in only two fatalities, primarily due to the swift actions of first responders who managed to address the trauma effectively.

The most recent mass killing took place last week in California, resulting in the deaths of four individuals, including three children, during a birthday party.

In 2019, the database recorded 49 mass killings, the highest number since tracking began in 2006.