In the midst of ongoing protests in Iran, there’s a heated discussion about the actual death toll, complicated by internet shutdowns and government intimidation. Activists and media outlets offer varying estimates, with confirmed fatalities ranging from a few thousand to potentially tens of thousands.
Fatemeh Jamalpour, an Iranian journalist with two decades of experience covering protest movements, noted that this crackdown signals a significant escalation in the regime’s violence. “The regime’s level of aggression has increased remarkably, and cutting off internet access complicates understanding the true extend of the killings,” she explained.
Jamalpour emphasized that this wave of protests is different, particularly since the night of January 8 when security forces received orders to fire directly on protesters. In the past, such military responses were mostly confined to ethnic minority regions like Kurdistan.
The Human Rights Defenders News Agency (HRANA), based in the US, has become a key source for tracking deaths, stating that as of January 25, there were 5,848 confirmed fatalities, including 5,520 protesters, 77 children, and various casualties among security forces and civilians. The count of deaths still needing verification stands at 17,091.
In contrast, Iranian authorities have officially reported only 3,117 deaths, a number they haven’t updated in days, with no supporting information provided.
Some medical reports suggest that the real toll could be much higher. For instance, a report from the Munich Medical Group, authored by Professor Amir Mobares Parasta, estimates about 33,130 deaths by January 23 using a conservative extrapolation model, although this number isn’t confirmed and relies on incomplete medical data.
An anonymous report claimed from within Iran suggests more than 36,500 might have died during the protests on January 8 and 9, but this information hasn’t been independently verified.
Jamalpour noted the chilling reality of the violence: many medical personnel reported that protesters were often shot at close range, aimed specifically at fatal areas. She adds a somber note about the demographics of casualties, revealing many were young people under 30, including individuals as young as children and others as old as 67.
As the Iranian regime continues its crackdown, lawyers and human rights organizations express deep concern for over 20,000 detained protesters who could face execution. Despite the pervasive fear, there’s also a glimmer of hope among some—Jamalpour relayed that many are looking to international figures for support in their struggle for change.
