Blue State Blues
Democratic bastions New York and California are set to lose six House seats combined after 2030, driven largely by the population surge in the Sunbelt, as per new census data analysis released on Tuesday.
According to the Redistricting Network, New York is expected to shed two additional seats in the next ten years due to stagnant population growth. Critics are quick to point out that this trend is indicative of a broader decline in the Empire State.
And it seems Californians aren’t quite living the dream anymore, as the analysis forecasts the Golden State will lose four seats. This marks a significant shift after years of growth.
On a contrasting note, fast-growing states like Texas and Florida are projected to gain four seats each due to rapid population increases, the report indicates.
The analysis comes from Jonathan Servas at Carnegie Mellon University, who based his findings on recently released population estimates for 2025 from the Census Bureau.
Servas is an expert in redistricting and was appointed by a court to redraw New York’s congressional map back in 2022 after some legal tussles between Democratic and Republican factions.
Jeff Weiss, a lawyer from New York Law School who assisted with the district boundary redraw, commented, “This is not great news for New York or California.” He added that if President Trump and Republicans gain the ability to mandate citizenship questions on census forms, blue states might lose even more representation, since this could affect the reported population of each state.
Weiss also highlighted a constitutional point: all residents must be counted, regardless of their legal status. However, the introduction of citizenship questions could deter undocumented immigrants from participating, further skewing the counts.
This analysis paints a concerning picture for New York, which has seen its congressional representation drop from 45 members in the 1940s to just 26 today. If the predictions hold, this number might decline further to 24.
The New York Republican Party is placing the blame for this downward trend squarely on Governor Kathy Hochul and the Democratic leadership in the state.
David Laska, a spokesperson for the New York GOP, stated, “Americans are voting with their feet, leaving blue states for red ones.” He continued, “Who can blame them? Democratic control has turned New York into the highest-taxed state. That’s why New Yorkers want to vote in Bruce Blakeman to steer New York towards growth and affordability.”
California, which currently has 52 House seats—the most in the nation—could see that drop to 48 as per the analysis. This follows a trend, as California lost one seat in 2020 after a century of continual growth.
In the meantime, redistricting will expand Texas’s representation from 38 to 42 House seats and Florida’s from 28 to 32. Additionally, Illinois, another blue state, is projected to lose two seats, reducing its count from 17 to 15.
