Tensions Escalate in Cuba Amid Oil Supply Disruptions

Rising tensions are evident within Cuba’s communist government as President Donald Trump ramps up efforts to isolate the nation, coinciding with Mexico’s halt of essential oil shipments that have been crucial for the island’s survival.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced on Tuesday that the state oil company Pemex has temporarily stopped supplying oil to Cuba, according to the Associated Press. This decision may lead to increased criticism from Havana. Oil imports from Venezuela, which have historically supported Cuba, have significantly dwindled following the U.S. action against former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Sheinbaum emphasized that this move was not influenced by U.S. pressure, though it came after Trump hinted that Cuba’s regime might soon collapse. “Cuba is going to collapse soon. Cuba is really very close to collapse,” he stated while speaking to reporters, noting that Cuba had been getting oil from Venezuela—a flow that has now ceased.

For Cuba, fuel from Mexico, Russia, and Venezuela is crucial, especially given its current economic struggles. As per reports, the average oil shipment from Mexico to Cuba was roughly 20,000 barrels per day from January to September 2025. However, satellite data suggests that the number has dropped to about 7,000 barrels daily in recent months.

Trump remarked on Truth Social that Cuba had long relied on oil and funds from Venezuela, stating, “but that’s not all anymore!” He further insisted that a deal should be pursued before it’s too late. Meanwhile, Sheinbaum referred to the decision to suspend oil shipments as a “sovereign decision,” highlighting typical supply fluctuations.

Currently, the Trump administration is contemplating a total oil blockade against Cuba to amplify pressure for regime change. In parallel, Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently announced a humanitarian aid package in collaboration with the Catholic Church amid worries over the worsening humanitarian situation in Cuba.

Additionally, the Chinese government has expressed its disapproval of U.S. measures against Cuba, condemning what it views as foreign intervention. A spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that they are “deeply concerned” and urged the U.S. to stop obstructing the Cuban population’s rights to survival and development.