Coffee Prices Experience Fluctuations
On Friday, Arabica coffee for March delivery rose by 0.40 cents (0.13%), while the ICE Robusta coffee for the same month saw an increase of 24 cents (0.63%).
For the second consecutive day, coffee prices climbed, with Robusta reaching a one-week peak. After falling to six-month lows earlier in the week, the rise in prices seems linked to coffee roasters looking to restock dwindling inventories and being more willing to purchase.
Recent pressure on coffee prices has primarily stemmed from expectations of a robust Brazilian coffee harvest. In fact, Robusta dropped to a six-month low by Wednesday, while Arabica hit that mark on Monday. Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, recently reported that the country’s coffee output in 2026 is expected to hit a record 66.2 million bags, reflecting a 17.2% year-on-year increase. Breakdown-wise, Arabica production is forecasted to boom by 23.2% to 44.1 million bags, and Robusta is anticipated to rise by 6.3% to 22.1 million bags.
Additionally, beneficial rainfall in Brazil has elevated expectations for the coffee harvest. Concerns regarding dry conditions faded when it was noted that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest coffee-growing area, received 72.6 mm of rain during the week ending February 6, which is 113% of the historical average. This weather development has significantly impacted Arabica prices.
On another note, Robusta prices have been under pressure as coffee exports from Vietnam, the top producer of Robusta, have surged. The National Bureau of Statistics in Vietnam reported a 38.3% year-on-year increase in coffee exports to 198,000 tons. The total coffee export volume for Vietnam in 2025 is projected to be 1.58 million metric tons, marking a 17.5% increase from the prior year.
The rising supply of Vietnamese coffee will likely exert downward pressure on Robusta prices. Forecasts suggest that Vietnam’s coffee production in 2025/26 will grow by 6% year-on-year, reaching 1.76 million metric tons, or roughly 29.4 million bags, the highest level in four years.
Moreover, the recovery of coffee stocks on the ICE exchange appears negative for overall prices. While Arabica stocks fell to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags on November 18, they rebounded to a 3.25-month high of 461,829 bags by January 7. Meanwhile, ICE Robusta coffee inventory dropped to a 13-month low of 4,012 lots on December 10, but has since recovered to 4,662 lots as of January 26.
On a somewhat positive note for the coffee market, Brazil’s Trade Ministry indicated last Thursday that January exports of coffee plunged by 42.4% year-on-year to 141,000 tonnes.
Additionally, dwindling coffee supplies from Colombia, the second-largest producer of Arabica, are positively impacting prices. The National Coffee Producers Federation reported a 34% year-on-year decrease in production for January, totaling 893,000 bags.
There are also indications of tighter global coffee supplies with the International Coffee Organization (ICO) noting that global coffee exports for the current market year (October-September) dipped by 0.3% year-on-year, totaling 138,658,000 bags.
Looking ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) semi-annual report highlighted that global coffee production is predicted to increase by 2.0% in 2025/26, reaching 178,848,000 bags—a record high. However, it’s expected that Arabica production will decrease by 4.7% to 95,515,000 bags, while Robusta is anticipated to rise by 10.9% to 83,333,000 bags. Predictions also suggest a decrease in Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production, which is expected to fall by 3.1% year-on-year to 63 million bags, whereas Vietnam’s production is expected to increase by 6.2% to 30.8 million bags, the highest in four years. Ending stocks in 2025/26 are projected to decline by 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25.
