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IRS tax refunds have increased by 10.9% this season, according to early filing data.

IRS tax refunds have increased by 10.9% this season, according to early filing data.

D Keine | E+ | Getty Images

Early filing data from the IRS indicates that the average tax refund has risen by 10.9% compared to the same period last year.

The 2026 tax season kicks off on January 26th. As of February 6, the average refund amount reported by the IRS is $2,290, an increase from $2,065 a year earlier.

By February 6, total refunds have surpassed $16.9 billion, showing a modest increase of 1.9% compared to last year, according to an IRS release. This figure only accounts for the current year’s figures.

On the same day, Treasury Secretary and Acting IRS Administrator Scott Bessent shared with CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that there has been a 22% increase in refunds. However, it remains unclear what time frame his data covers or what he was comparing it to.

The Treasury Department has not responded to inquiries for additional information.

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The IRS noted in a release on February 27 that average refunds remain robust and are expected to rise further once refunds associated with the Earned Income Tax Credit and the additional child tax credit are processed.

Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, remarked, “Early refund data can be misleading,” during a guide shared on January 22nd.

Typically, filers receive refunds through payments withheld from their paychecks or estimated payments if they’ve overpaid their taxes during the year. Conversely, if payments are insufficient, the taxpayer must settle the remaining balance.

In recent years, IRS statistics have shown a decrease in refunds at the start of tax season, but Lautz noted there usually is a pronounced increase by mid-February.

Despite this surge in February, average refunds have shown a slight decline by the April 15 deadline, he observed.

For reference, in 2025, average refunds for individual filers were recorded at $3,052 through October 17, according to the IRS.

Potential for larger refunds

As the 2026 tax filing season looms, discussions about refund amounts have gained traction, especially with approaching midterm elections.

President Trump has asserted that 2026 will be the “biggest tax refund season in history” due to changes from his “big, beautiful bill.”

This legislation introduced new tax cuts for 2025, yet the IRS did not adjust payroll withholding accordingly. As a result, many workers may see discrepancies in their refunds.

However, Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation, previously cautioned that there could be significant differences among taxpayers.

The final refund amount, or any balance owed, will ultimately depend on which new tax breaks apply to individual situations and how much tax was paid over the year, experts advise.

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