Simply put
- Bitcoin saw a brief uptick alongside Asian stock gains, indicating a risk-on sentiment ahead of Nvidia’s quarterly report.
- Market observers noted that this movement was more about relief from previous tariffs and political uncertainty than any concrete policy implications from President Trump’s address.
- In his remarks, Trump highlighted falling inflation, tariff revenues, and a climbing stock market.
Bitcoin increased just before President Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech on Tuesday, as investors reacted to the economic narrative from the administration and a growing risk appetite leading up to Nvidia’s earnings.
According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin surged more than $2,000, jumping from around $64,000 to $66,000 shortly before Trump’s speech at 9 PM ET. However, it later settled back at around $65,500, marking a roughly 3.5% rise for the day.
Trump began his speech by calling his first year in office a “transformative period,” asserting the nation was “bigger, better, richer, stronger,” and pledging to avoid the previous administration’s policies, particularly regarding tax cuts, tariffs, and inflation control.
The rally in Bitcoin, along with Asian stocks, is putting to the test whether the cryptocurrency’s connection to traditional risk assets remains strong. This optimism comes just ahead of Nvidia’s quarterly results expected on Wednesday.
Despite Bitcoin’s rise, it was not directly tied to Trump’s speech but rather a combination of Nvidia’s anticipated earnings and a bounce-back from last week’s tariffs and legal challenges, as noted by Derek Lim, head of research at Caladan.
“What was discussed on stage had far less immediate market impact than these other factors,” Lim remarked.
During his speech, Trump mentioned economic success, stating that “inflation is dropping” and “incomes are increasing rapidly.” He claimed his administration had reduced core inflation to its lowest level in five years, down 1.7% in the last three months.
“Mortgage rates are at four-year lows and declining quickly,” Trump pointed out, indicating that the cost of a new home mortgage is nearly $5,000 less than a year ago.
The president also highlighted stock market trends, claiming the market had achieved “53 post-election all-time highs” and that the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed $50,000 “four years ahead of schedule.”
However, Lim cautioned that the number of 53 “masks the reality” of what occurred during that period.
After Trump announced tariffs in April 2025, the Dow briefly dipped below 37,000, reflecting an 18% drop from its peak. He noted that the Dow’s $50,000 landmark was misleading, as it had slipped below that figure by February 16 and was trading around $49,174 on the night of his address.
Trump recognized tariffs as a significant factor, claiming they generated “hundreds of billions of dollars” and enabled beneficial economic and national security agreements.
This reference to tariffs follows a recent Supreme Court ruling that limited his ability to impose wide-reaching tariffs. Trump labeled the ruling “very disappointing” during his speech.
Nonetheless, he reasserted his commitment to the tariff policy, stating, “These strong, nation-saving, peace-saving tariffs will continue to be enforced through fully endorsed and tested alternatives, leading to even better outcomes.”
The Nasdaq 100 rose by 268 points on Tuesday, fueled by gains in Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, and Google, as investors awaited Nvidia’s eagerly awaited earnings call.
Lim believes this earnings announcement is the “most crucial catalyst in the near term,” with both the stock and cryptocurrency markets keenly focused on it.
Meanwhile, many see Trump’s address as part of a broader strategy ahead of the midterm elections in November. Republicans aim to use it to set their agenda, which includes issues like cost of living, border security, and economic performance.
