Average Tax Refunds Rise This Season
This tax season, the average refund is up by 10.8% compared to the same time last year, based on the latest data from the IRS.
As of March 13, individual filers are seeing an average refund of $3,623, which is a jump from $3,271 at the same time last year. The IRS noted this figure reflects about 69.7 million individual returns out of an expected total of around 164 million by the April 15 deadline.
Tax Refunds and Affordability Concerns
The recent filing data arrives as both political parties are addressing affordability issues for Americans ahead of the midterm elections. President Trump claimed this year could be the “biggest tax refund season in history,” thanks to a significant amendment he introduced in 2025.
However, many Americans are struggling with rising gas prices amid the ongoing conflict in Iran. The national average for gasoline has soared to $3.91 per gallon, up from about $2.93 just a month ago, according to AAA.
Some experts suggest that skyrocketing gasoline prices may counteract the benefits of the tax refunds. An analysis from a Stanford University economist indicates that these rising costs will significantly impact those with the least financial cushion. Alex Jacques, a policy director at the Groundwork Collaborative, expressed concerns at a recent press conference, saying, “I don’t think these tax refunds are going to help them.”
Trends in Current Refunds
This season’s average refund peaked at $3,804 on February 20, a rise from $3,453 the year prior, but has gradually declined in the past few weeks, according to IRS updates.
It’s typical to see spikes in mid-February as refunds tied to credits like the earned income tax credit and the additional child tax credit start to roll in. The White House had earlier suggested that average refunds might rise by “more than $1,000,” though payments have tapered off this season.
Tax expert Tom Oseven mentioned that he has processed around 200 returns so far and noted that those receiving refunds generally saw increases of a few hundred dollars compared to last year. However, he pointed out that individual tax situations can vary significantly based on various factors, including which Trump tax cuts apply and the amounts withheld through payroll deductions during 2025.
