California Democrats are facing a challenging situation in the upcoming 2026 gubernatorial race, with recent internal polling indicating that two Republicans—former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco—are currently leading ahead of the primary on June 2.
During a press conference on Tuesday, Democratic officials revealed these concerning results, emphasizing that only the top two candidates from the so-called jungle primary will proceed to the general election.
“This initial poll shows two Republicans ahead, with several Democrats trailing behind,” stated Rusty Hicks, chairman of the California Democratic Party.
He further remarked, “These findings confirm that while the Democratic Party is unlikely to be completely sidelined from the general election, it remains a precarious situation.” Hicks urged candidates to evaluate their realistic paths to victory amid this tension.
Democratic leaders seem increasingly worried that Hilton and Bianco might compete in a runoff, which could potentially lead to California electing its first Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger left office in 2011.
This survey, which included responses from 2,000 likely voters, was conducted after a gubernatorial debate scheduled at the University of Southern California was canceled. This decision followed backlash from Democratic lawmakers and candidates of color who were frustrated by a perceived lack of diversity.
Joining Hilton and Bianco, the other prominent Democratic contenders include Rep. Eric Swalwell, billionaire Tom Steyer, and former Rep. Katie Porter—who all happen to be white. The inclusion of San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, also white, in the USC debate stirred anger since he ranked lower in polls than former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra. Mahan’s campaign has seen substantial support from major tech companies.
Democrats still trailing in the polls include former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, state Public Instruction Director Tony Thurmond, and former Secretary of State Betty Yee.
Current polling suggests Hilton and Bianco are leading with 16% and 14% of the vote respectively, while Swalwell, Porter, and Steyer are tied at 10%. Becerra, Villaraigosa, and Mahan sit at 3%, leaving Yee at 2% and Thurmond at 1%.
Hicks indicated that the party would allow the race to unfold but soon transitioned to suggesting that those candidates with low approval ratings might need to consider withdrawing, though he did not specify any individuals on Tuesday.
“There’s just over 70 days until Election Day, and 40 days until voters receive their ballots,” Hicks noted. “We’re prepared to take the necessary steps to ensure that we elect a governor in November 2026.”
In a lighthearted yet urgent tone, Hicks mentioned, “Why not just highlight that two Republicans are in the lead? That’s certainly the case.”
Social media reacted, with Tommy Vieter, a co-host of the podcast Pod Save America, labeling the atmosphere as chaotic. “California Democrats need to unify quickly and navigate this mess,” he wrote, emphasizing the importance of the upcoming primaries in June. He also noted that candidates polling below 5% by April 15 would have to drop out and support another candidate to streamline the contest.
As of now, Governor Gavin Newsom has not publicly backed any candidate, and when asked if he should intervene to help eliminate lower-polling contenders, Hicks remained neutral, saying, “That remains the governor’s call. And about the timing, well, that’s still to be determined.”
