Average Tax Refunds Rise Significantly This Season
The average tax refund this season has increased by 11.3% compared to the same period last year, based on IRS filing data leading up to tax day. As of April 17th, the average refund for individual filers stands at $3,275, a sizable jump from last year’s $2,942.
About 140.2 million individual returns have been submitted, although initial estimates suggested around 164 million would file by the April 15th deadline. The IRS usually shares additional updates throughout the filing season, including reminders about October extensions, especially for those affected by natural disasters, who still have time to file.
This season, a number of Americans are finding that their tax refunds are higher, a result of reforms from President Donald Trump’s “Big and Beautiful Bill.” The bill introduced tax cuts for 2025, but the IRS didn’t update the withholding tax tables, meaning that many W-2 workers may end up overpaying on their taxes until the year’s end. Trump had predicted this would be “the biggest tax refund season in history.”
In January, the White House estimated that average refunds could rise by over $1,000 compared to the previous year, based on a report from Piper Sandler. However, the actual increase has averaged out to about $350, according to IRS data.
As the upcoming midterm elections approach, Republicans are emphasizing the impact of the tax cuts, particularly as many Americans are feeling financial strain. Both parties are focusing heavily on economic issues.
Who is Benefiting from Trump’s Tax Cuts?
Over 60 million returns this season have claimed one of Trump’s notable tax cuts, which included a new deduction structure. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the average tip deduction this season was over $7,000, while overtime pay deductions averaged more than $3,100. Additionally, the average deduction for seniors was reported at more than $7,500.
Filers who itemize their deductions are also seeing benefits from increased federal limits on state and local taxes (SALT). Trump’s legislation raised the SALT cap from $10,000 to $40,000 in 2025.
While the Treasury hasn’t disclosed specific data on SALT claims for this filing season, there are indications that some states, such as California and New Jersey, might see larger refunds due to these deductions, as suggested by Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.
During a Tax Day press conference, Bessent urged taxpayers to revise their payroll withholdings in 2026 to accommodate “automatic real wage increases,” though this advice faced criticism from several tax experts on social media.
Around 56% of filers reported some increase in their tax returns this season, according to a survey by the Bipartisan Policy Center, which engaged with 1,200 taxpayers in late March. However, experts remain uncertain if these tax cuts will significantly influence voter sentiment in the midterm elections.
