The Democratic Party’s Lead in California May be Diminishing

Recent data suggests that the Democratic Party’s foothold in California is potentially weakening. Over 900,000 ballots were submitted by early voters during the June 2 primary, highlighting a significant increase in Republican votes compared to the last gubernatorial election four years prior.

According to research from Political Data, out of the 905,889 votes returned, 37% were from Republicans, marking an 11% rise in their vote share since the 2022 midterm elections. Conversely, the number of Democrats returning their ballots has dipped by 13 percentage points in comparison to this same point in the primary cycle four years ago.

When analyzing the turnout from 2022 to 2026:

• 41% (-13) – Democrat
• 37% (+11) – Republican
• 22% (+2) – Independent/Other

Paul Mitchell, a vice president and analyst at Political Data, suggested that the early voter turnout could be reflective of a couple of factors. For one, Republicans might be returning ballots at rates seen before 2020, a shift attributed to discouragement from then-President Trump and other key figures. Additionally, some Democrats may be hesitant to submit their ballots, concerned their votes would not count effectively in a system favoring the top two candidates.

There was, perhaps not surprisingly, some praise for the Republican turnout. A post from Central Valley Politics illustrated how different counties are reacting to Republican engagement, pointing out areas where support has notably increased.

Interestingly, one map displayed early returns by party while another showcased returns relative to each county’s party registration. It was noted that Republicans seem to be outpacing expectations in nearly all but two counties.

The data also revealed voting trends by age; voters aged 65 and over composed 54% of returned ballots, while those between 18 to 34 accounted for only 10%. Additionally, white voters represented 67% of the electorate, while Latino and Black voters made up 19% and 11% respectively.

In the gubernatorial race, the leading Democratic candidates include former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, billionaire Tom Steyer, and ex-Congresswoman Katie Porter. On the Republican side, former Fox News host Steve Hilton appears to maintain a strong lead over Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.

The top two candidates from the primary, regardless of their party affiliation, will compete in the general election this November. After the votes are tallied in June, it will be interesting to see if a trend favoring Republicans emerges ahead of the midterms.

Earlier this year, Trump forecast a “red wave” in relation to the 2026 midterm elections, noting that winning in presidential elections might not bode well for midterms. Still, he expressed confidence in significant improvements for Republicans.