As federal authorities ramp up efforts against welfare fraud, a recent poll shows that voters are worried about abuses in the system but also want to ensure that legitimate recipients aren’t denied access.
Conducted before new charges were announced last Thursday against 15 individuals related to the Minnesota welfare fraud case—part of several ongoing investigations nationwide—this poll revealed some interesting insights.
A striking 71% of registered voters believe that welfare fraud and social services abuse is very or extremely common. Additionally, almost half, around 45%, think fraud has increased in the past couple of years. In contrast, only 19% feel it has decreased, and 35% see no change at all.
Yet, when it comes to balancing enforcement and access, many voters seem to prioritize supporting those who are eligible. About 56% indicated that securing benefits for eligible applicants should take precedence, even if that means some fraud might occur. Meanwhile, 43% believe that combating fraud should be the priority, even if it risks cutting benefits for some eligible individuals.
Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster involved in the survey, reflected that “the data shows what populist candidates intuitively understand.” He noted that people see the government as plagued by corruption and incompetence, and the ongoing stories of fraud have only reinforced this viewpoint. This raises an essential question: Are we risking access for the genuinely needy just to prevent taxpayer fraud?
There’s a noticeable divide among voters regarding blame for the fraud. While 50% attribute it to individuals misrepresenting their qualifications, the same percentage blames organizations or contractors for inflating their costs.
On the topic of fraud prevention, more voters tend to trust state governments (60% to some degree) over the federal government (51%).
Interestingly, there is bipartisan agreement on the perception of welfare fraud’s prevalence. Democrats, Republicans, and independents generally concur that fraud is widespread and has been on the rise. Yet, when you dig deeper, partisan views diverge significantly.
Most Democrats focus more on blaming organizations and ensuring eligible individuals receive their benefits. On the other hand, Republicans are more inclined to point fingers at those who misrepresent their qualifications and tend to favor stricter anti-fraud regulations. Independents appear torn, with equal numbers pointing to individuals or contractors as the source of fraud, but they largely favor access to benefits over fraud prevention.
Trust in state government seems to share some common ground across party lines, with majorities of Democrats (65%), independents (59%), and Republicans (56%) expressing faith in states’ ability to prevent fraud. In contrast, views about the federal government are more polarized; 63% of Republicans trust it, compared to only 42% of Democrats and 47% of independents.
When evaluating Congress, voter approval remains low, with only 30% of voters satisfied with the performance of Democrats and 31% for Republicans. The approval rating for Congressional Democrats has risen slightly since February, whereas support for Republicans has taken a hit, mainly due to a decline among their own base. However, more Republicans (67%) still support their party compared to 58% of Democrats who feel positively.
Shaw noted that negative perceptions of Democrats play a significant role in influencing midterm elections. Republicans’ unfavorable ratings are expected, given their current control amid a gloomy national climate. To turn the tide, he suggests that Democrats need to convince voters they offer better solutions.
Looking ahead to the 2026 midterms, about 60% of voters express significant concern about redistricting, with Democrats more anxious than Republicans (71% vs. 51%). Interestingly, Democrats are also more likely to voice strong concern about it. Independents seem split, with half expressing apprehension while the other half remain indifferent.
On another note, voters shared their opinions on possibly increasing the number of justices on the U.S. Supreme Court. Support for this idea sat at 45%, with 55% opposing it. This perspective hasn’t shifted much since 2022, with only slight increases from a low of 35% in 2021. While a slim majority of Democrats (55%) support expanding the court, independents (56%) and Republicans (64%) are largely against the measure.
This poll, conducted from May 15 to 18, 2026, involved 1,002 registered voters selected randomly from national voter files. Various methods of survey completion were used, including live interviews and online responses following a text prompt. The margin of sampling error for the general sample is around ±3 percentage points, with a larger error for subgroup results. Weighting has been applied to ensure demographic representativeness.
