Here's a question I've been thinking about a lot this offseason. Would the Mets have traded Pete Alonso if you fans didn't exist?
I think your presence was a factor in Alonso staying at the Met. Because in a lab, there should be a logical reason for the Mets to trade him. like:
1) The Mets want to win a championship in 2024, but they don't have a comprehensive approach. 2) This market craves difference-making bats. 3) All trends over the past decade have been moving away from overcompensating Alonso to his type, corner and unathletic players who will spend the bulk of their long-term contracts in their 30s. 4) There's clearly a huge gap between what the Mets believe in Alonso's value and his agent Scott Boras' view.
In that barren environment, a strong case could be made to trade Alonso. But the Mets, especially Steve Cohen and David Stearns, live in the real world.
Coen now is not the conquering hero he was 12 months ago, and trading Alonso would only worsen Coen's current perception among the fanbase.
As the Brewers' director of baseball operations, Stearns traded Josh Hader while competing for the playoffs, but things didn't work out. That was Milwaukee's Josh Hader. This is Pete Alonso from New York.
And Stearns, who was born and raised on the Upper East Side as a Mets fan, knows he doesn't want to start his administration by making such a polarizing decision. want). The first off-season coach who led the Mets without facing Bear, especially at a time when some quarters are concerned that he was hired to bring small-market philosophy to the Cohen world. He had a lot to do this season.
So, shortly after taking his new job, Stearns publicly announced that he expected Alonso to be the Mets' first baseman when the 2024 season began.
Ultimately, Stearns was not selected by the Met when the two key decisions regarding Alonso to this point were made.
- to add him to the 2019 Opening Day roster. I want to say it was the right thing to do. It was disgusting that the organization artificially kept players in the minors to manipulate service time, essentially forcing them to play seven seasons to get the six seasons needed for free agency.
However, the common practice at the time was to do just that. Even if he spends three weeks in the minors, Alonso's free agency would be delayed until after the 2025 season.
- This is to prevent them from moving him before last year's trade deadline. He was a year and a half away from free agency, so he would have had a bigger contract than he has now. Stearns was no longer in charge of baseball operations at that point, but since he was still with the Brewers, he would have known of their offer, and obviously would have known of the Cubs' bid and that he had been hired by the Mets.
That would give Stearns a reference point even if he didn't solicit a bid for Alonso this offseason. You can further infer from the amount the Padres paid for Juan Soto with a year left until free agency (the Yankees also acquired Trent Grisham). Soto is an even more attractive addition, but this market would have made Alonso even more valuable.
The position market has largely stalled since free agents Soto and Shohei Ohtani came off the board, mainly because the industry doesn't seem to value Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman (among other things). For example, how their agent (coincidentally) is Boras.
But the calculated decision here also includes the idea that the Mets want to try to compete this year. You could argue that if they were really only playing for the long-term future, they should have tried trading Francisco Lindor or Brandon Nimmo in a market starved for this position. . Instead, the Mets have Alonso, Lindor, Nimmo, Francisco Alvarez, Jeff McNeil, and Kodai Chiga, and if they can fill in the lineup around them, they will be a contender.
If not, the Mets will make another decision about trading Alonso in July. So far, this is reminiscent of the Yankees' dealings with Aaron Judge, who is entering his four-ball year. The two teams had very different opinions on the long-term value of New York's proven and fan-favorite elite power hitter. The Yankees made another long-term offer in the spring of 2022, but Judge rejected it, betting on himself and hitting a franchise-record 62 home runs to win and move Hal Steinbrenner to a place he never expected (9 In 2017, he transferred to the United States for $360 million.
Using those extra days in 2019, Alonso hit 53 home runs, surpassing Judge's rookie record of 52 set two years earlier. If Alonso hits 63 home runs this year, breaking Judge's record for a New York player set two years ago, Cohen will likely be forced to reconsider where he goes financially.
Neither side has publicly discussed the current situation. However, Boras typically sets the bar very high, often taking players through free agency to clarify their market value. He argues that Alonso should be in the judges' bucket because he is a homegrown native, has a proven track record in New York, is popular with fans, has elite power and has better durability than ever before. I think they will. The Mets will argue that Alonso is not the same athlete and marketable as Judge, and will argue that he is a first baseman and that the market for that position has changed significantly over the past decade.
The dividing line is 2014. That year, the Tigers reached an agreement with Miguel Cabrera for $248 million, an eight-year first base record, with two years left on his contract. After the 2011 season, the Angels signed free agent Albert Pujols to a 10-year, $240 million contract, the Tigers signed free agent Prince Fielder to a nine-year, $214 million contract, and the Reds signed free agent Prince Fielder to a nine-year, $214 million contract. After signing Botto to a 10-year, $225 million extension (also from a two-year contract). All of this exceeded Mark Teixeira's eight-year first baseman record of $180 million with the Yankees after the 2008 season.
No first baseman has broken Teixeira's 15-year contract since 2014. The biggest contract is Matt Olson's eight-year, $168 million contract extension with Atlanta. The highest paid free agent was Freddie Freeman's $162 million, six-year deferred contract with the Dodgers, currently worth about $148 million. Both were in 2022.
Rafael Devers signed a 10-year, $313.5 million extension with the Red Sox last offseason ahead of his four-ball season, with the understanding that he could play the majority of that time as a first baseman or DH. It was. However, he was signed as a third baseman for his age 26 season. Alonso is heading into the race at age 29 (he was 30 in the year Judge campaigned).
In many cases of large first base contracts, there was a desperate desire on the part of the owners to close the deal. But since then, common industry practice has been to ignore this desperate situation. This is because contracts like Cabrera and Pujols, for example, have aged too much, with their corner bodies becoming thicker and regressing as they reach their 30s.
So, will we wait to see if Alonso performs well enough to force the Mets and Cohen to reevaluate? What if he still gets traded? What if the voice of the fan base influenced decisions?
Alonso's future with the Mets is a major subplot for the organization, which is scheduled to begin spring training in 3¹/₂ weeks.
