a Wall Street Journal article He observed that the administration is struggling to sell its approach to post-war Gaza. That's understandable, since it's built on a convenient fantasy. The center of the fantasy is Gaza itself.
Before Hamas's attack on October 7, Gaza was a corrupt, barely functioning city ruled by Hamas and home to 2.1 million people. Today, it is a conflict zone. Israeli forces have retreated in places, but airstrikes continue at a strong pace.
Will there be a tomorrow in Gaza? i doubt it. (Related: JD FOSTER: Biden administration's antitrust push against airlines is pointless)
Satellite photos show that More than half of Gaza's buildings have been damaged or destroyed. More than 80% of northern Gaza, where the population was densely populated, and Gaza City, where Israeli forces were most active, were damaged by more than 80%. The southern end of the district is currently under intense scrutiny, and the number of incidents is likely to rise further.
There are limits to what satellites can reveal. The actual percentage of buildings damaged is almost certainly much higher. What will happen to public infrastructure? What's left of our water, sewer, power sources, and power grids? The best guess answer is between little and nothing.
Even if a permanent ceasefire were implemented today, large parts of Gaza would be uninhabitable for years. There is no shelter, water, electricity, food, or hope. Since an imminent ceasefire is unlikely, the small areas in Gaza that can sustain civilian life are certain to steadily shrink.
It's fine to talk about post-war governance structures, but it's especially comfortable territory for foreign policy elites, so the first question you have to ask is: who governs? Gaza will not be able to support a fraction of its pre-war population today or tomorrow. For now, these people are frozen, demoralized, and starving prisoners of Hamas, relying on various relief organizations to survive.
Temporary stays are inevitable, but the reality is that much of the population will need to move quickly to places like Lebanon and Turkey that have some capacity. The vaunted Arab Brotherhood will soon be put to the test.
Many argue that Gazans should be allowed to return to their homes, rubble or not. The key word there is “should,” reflecting the fantasy world in which the Biden administration operates. The longer decision-makers fixate on what they should do, the more the remaining Gazans will suffer.
Beyond the immediate future, Gaza's future remains a wasteland. In addition to peace and some reasonable hope that Israeli jets will not return, hundreds of billions of dollars will be needed to rebuild it to a minimal standard.
Who will pay for this? The Biden administration may show some slack, but the US Congress will not allow it to spend a single dollar on rebuilding Gaza.
The Arab world will put on a big show and make a lot of noise, but in the end, little of note will happen. Even Iranians will repeat their attacks elsewhere.
They don't really care about Palestinians or Gaza. So do some people in Europe. China will likely consider participating in some small way to expand its regional influence, but will ultimately abstain as the amount of money involved dwarfs the meager, temporary rewards.
That's it in the long run. In the short and medium term, just cleaning up the debris of war will take years to organize and carry out. In the meantime, where should Gazans live? Not Gaza.
What will happen next after what remains of Gaza slowly disintegrates and nearly all of its original inhabitants have migrated? Many will likely remain in refugee camps for years.
Some people may aim for a Europe that is increasingly anti-immigration. But many will head to southern Lebanon to work with Hezbollah, the West Bank and the rebuilding Hamas.
It's not hard to see what happens next.
J.D. Foster is the former Chief Economist of the Office of Management and Budget and the former Chief Economist and Executive Vice Chairman of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He now lives relatively freely in the hills of Idaho.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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