Much has been written about the correlation between former President Donald Trump's popularity and criminal cases, and how his poll numbers have changed. spiked upwards Every time he was indicted. Although this seems counterintuitive, there may be a good reason for this strange phenomenon.
Special Counsel Jack Smith, of course, works under the auspices of the US Department of Justice. especially, manual of justice The regulations, issued by the department, severely limit what federal prosecutors can say about pending cases, and Smith must abide by them.
The manual instructs prosecutors to refrain from commenting on defendants' personalities, public statements, or whether they are guilty of the crimes they are charged with. Essentially, prosecutors must remain largely silent and let their cases speak.
Regardless of what the Justice Manual dictates, Jack Smith is a career prosecutor who is truly a paragon of justice. This reflects the attitude of Attorney General Merrick Garland, a former federal judge. criticized For his deliberate and highly ethical attitude.
Neither figure tends to draw outside the lines. In their world, the indictment says it all. Fair play and following the rules are mandatory concepts, not optional concepts.
In contrast, Trump, although somewhat restrained, gag order A judgment issued by the presiding judge has near-unfettered ability to say virtually anything about the merits of the case against him. So he completely created a narrative that he was politically persecuted.
Mr. Smith cannot (and will not) try his case in public, and furthermore, most voters will take the time to read the indictment against Trump, which includes very serious charges and criminal charges. That will never happen, so for many Americans, the story of Mr. Trump is what defines this day. his supporters.
False narratives have great power. In psychology, it is called “Fantastic truth effect. ” When a lie is repeated over and over again, the information becomes familiar and easier to trust. Suffice to say, Trump is a master at deploying this tool.
There's nothing surprising about this. At the recent Iowa caucuses, exit poll showed A majority of local Republican voters believe Trump won the 2020 election. There is absolutely no empirical data to support this, but again, this is a product of a false narrative that has been repeated over and over again by Trump and his supporters. If you keep saying it, it must be true.
Unfortunately, this strange and unprecedented situation will continue unless Mr. Smith and his team are unable to present sufficient evidence in court and Mr. Trump is convicted of any of the important charges he faces. right. Please give Trump what he deserves. He surprisingly turned multiple federal criminal charges into positive poll numbers.
Ultimately, Smith's only recourse is to take one of these cases to trial, but this will be a difficult task as time is running out. Until then, Trump will have the seat and the illusion of truth will continue to work in his favor as he seeks a return to the presidency.
John E. Jones III is president of Dickinson College in Carlisle, Pennsylvania. He previously served as chief judge of the Middle District Court of Pennsylvania and was appointed to the bench by President George W. Bush in 2002.
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