Donald Trump defeated Nikki Haley in South Carolina by 20 points, sweeping the first three Republican nomination contests. Despite her defeat, Haley, a Palmetto State native and former governor, vowed to continue her presidential campaign through the Super Tuesday primary on March 5.
The results of a Fox News voter analysis of more than 2,400 South Carolina Republican primary voters show Trump’s advantage among the party’s base and could impact both the remaining primaries and the general election. It shows the division within the party.
South Carolina has open primaries, and voters can choose to participate in either the Democratic or Republican primary, regardless of which party they normally support. Still, most voters (87%) consider themselves Republicans, and Trump won with this group by 33 points, just as he did in New Hampshire (Trump +33 points). .
Haley was buoyed by support from independents (+29 points) and Democrats (+88 points), both of whom made up relatively small percentages of single-member districts.
Trump defeats Haley in his home state of South Carolina primary, moving him closer to winning the Republican nomination
The ideological divisions within the party were fully exposed. Haley defeated the moderates by a 26-point margin, about the same as the 25-point margin she won over the moderates in the Granite State. Trump’s lead with self-described “slightly conservative” voters was narrower than in New Hampshire (18 points to 25 points), as was his lead among very conservative voters (+62). points vs. +67 points).
Nearly six in 10 voters (58%) consider themselves part of the Make America Great Again movement, and the majority supported Trump.
The results of a Fox News voter analysis show Trump’s dominance among the party’s base and divisions within the party that could affect both the remaining primaries and general election. (FOX News Polling Department)
The story was different among non-MAGA voters, who backed Haley by 51 points.
In addition to ideological fault lines, primary voters were also sharply divided along educational lines. Trump continued to lead among voters without a college degree (up 37 points), as well as in New Hampshire (up 32 points) and Iowa (up 49 points).
College-educated voters support Haley by 9 points, clearly lower than Haley’s 22-point lead in New Hampshire.
Trump continued to show significant strength among rural voters, winning by a 32-point margin. The race was close in the suburbs (Trump +6 points).
White evangelical Christians were another important source of strength for the former president, making up half (49%) of voters.
College-educated voters support Haley by 9 points, clearly lower than Haley’s 22-point lead in New Hampshire. (FOX News Polling Department)
Despite her controversial comments attacking Haley’s husband, who is currently deployed overseas in the South Carolina Army National Guard, as a low profile on the campaign trail, Trump won the military household by a 28-point margin. obtained.
Haley began her presidential bid by calling for cognitive testing of presidential candidates and has repeatedly questioned Trump’s mental health during the campaign. By an 8-point margin, more voters felt she had the mental capacity to effectively serve as president than voters who felt that way about Trump.
Voters are 14 points more likely to say Trump will keep the country safe (Trump 76%, Haley 62%) and 19 points more likely to say he will fight for people like them (Trump 74%). %, Mr. Haley 55%) was high.
When it came to the all-important question of whether he could win in November, Trump had an overwhelming 30-point lead.
58% think Joe Biden was not the rightful winner four years ago, and a clear majority think Trump should have won in 2020. Trump won these voters by a 70-point margin. Haley won by a 53-point margin over those who believed Biden had won legitimately.
President Trump says Haley is “not really thinking” after South Carolina victory and is focused on defeating Biden
At the same time, half are worried that Trump is too extreme to win the general election, with 31% saying they are very concerned.
Far fewer (33%) worry that Haley is too extreme, with 14% very worried.
These concerns may explain why six in 10 Hailey voters (59%) say they would not support Trump in the general election if he were the nominee. Few of her supporters would be happy if he were the candidate (12%).
A majority of Hailey voters (59%) say they would not support Trump in the general election if he were the nominee. (FOX News Polling Department)
If Haley wins the primary, a majority of Trump voters will ultimately support her. 44% did not.
In a sign that Haley is receiving a modest boost from people who don’t identify with the Republican Party, 8% of voters said they would not support her if she were the nominee. By contrast, all Trump supporters (99%) say they would support Trump in the fall if he wins the primary.
Most people who voted for President Trump (89%) said their decision was to vote for their preferred candidate rather than against Haley. Meanwhile, Haley voters were divided, with 53% voting in support of her. 47% voted against Trump.
If Haley wins the primary, a majority of Trump voters will ultimately support her. 44% did not. (FOX News Polling Department)
Overall, a majority had a favorable view of Trump, Haley, and Sen. Tim Scott, who withdrew from the presidential race in November and endorsed Trump before the New Hampshire primary. . South Carolina’s other senator, Republican Lindsey Graham, had a less favorable view.
As in every previous Republican primary, immigration was the biggest issue on voters’ minds, with the economy coming in second.
Most primary voters (83%) support building a wall along the southern border and feel that immigrants generally hurt the country more than they help it (22%) (74%).
Immigrant voters were a huge source of strength for Trump (+51 points), as were New Hampshire (+48 points).
Trump also had a significant lead among those who felt the economy was the most important issue (+21 points).
Trump’s advantage on this issue was supported by 29% who said they were economically behind (+43 points for Trump), while the race was a little closer among people who break even. (Trump +18 points).
The relatively small number of voters who said they were economically advantaged supported Haley by 33 points.
Ms. Haley also had a big advantage (up 52 points) among people who think foreign policy is the most important issue facing the country, but only 8% of voters said that.
President Trump’s comments on NATO, which suggested he would tell Russia to “do what they want” with alliance members that fail to meet their defense spending obligations, sparked controversy during the campaign. . Most primary voters (75%) say being a NATO member is good for the United States, and 35% say membership is a very good thing.
Those who thought the alliance would be very good for the United States supported Haley by 28 points, while those who felt it was somewhat good favored Trump by a similar margin (+31 points). Almost everyone who felt NATO was a bad deal for the United States supported Mr. Trump.
Ms. Haley and Mr. Trump also differed on their support for aid to Ukraine in the fight against Russia, which also divided voters.
Voters who opposed aid to Ukraine supported President Trump by 55 points. Those who supported aid agreed with Haley (+19 points).
Military aid to Israel in its fight against Hamas has been particularly divisive.
In total, half wanted the United States to play a less active role in solving world problems, and this group favored Trump by 43 points. It also won those who think the country should be more active on the world stage (+29 points), but those who feel the current U.S. approach is limited to right-back Haley (+29 points). +21 points).
President Trump has recently been said to be open to a nationwide ban on abortions after 16 weeks of pregnancy. Three-quarters of South Carolina Republicans would support a similar approach.
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Notably, fewer than 55% supported a ban beyond six weeks of pregnancy.
Overall, a majority said abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, and these voters supported Trump by 44 points. Haley won by a 17-point margin over those who think abortion should be legal.
Despite recent court rulings against Trump, Trump’s legal problems do not appear to be a significant obstacle to his major future. A quarter believe the charges he faces are a legitimate investigation into potential wrongdoing, but far more see them as politically motivated attacks.
Furthermore, less than a quarter believe President Trump acted illegally in his possession of classified documents (27%), his actions regarding vote counting in 2020 (26%), or the events of January 6, 2021. (20%).
methodology
Fox News Voter Analysis is a survey of more than 2,400 South Carolina Republican primary voters conducted February 20-24, 2024. Full methodology details are available. here.
