Former President Trump is well on his way to becoming the Republican presidential nominee, but the trip revealed some real obstacles on his path to taking back the White House.
In New Hampshire, Trump’s easy victory over Republican rival Nikki Haley masked weaknesses among independents.
Although Mr. Trump defeated the former governor in his home state of South Carolina, Mr. Trump’s victory also put a spotlight on the majority of moderate Republicans who do not support Mr. Trump.
Ms. Haley outperformed Mr. Trump in key suburban areas in November and also performed better than Mr. Trump among more moderate voters. About 40% of Haley voters said they voted against President Trump, indicating that former President Haley has work left to do before the general election in November.
Alex Conant, who worked on Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) 2016 presidential campaign, said, “He’s effectively a strong candidate, but there are still a lot of Republicans who would prefer someone else. I think that’s an issue,” he said. motion.
“Once we get into the general election and Republicans have no choice, some of those voters will go home, but in a close election, these voters are the reason Trump lost in 2020. ” added Conant. “I think this is problematic, and it’s amazing that President Trump hasn’t done anything since 2020 to broaden his own appeal.”
Trump won the South Carolina primary on Saturday with 60% of the vote to Haley’s 40%. He won each of the first four Republican primaries, and his campaign expects to have enough delegates to win the nomination by March 19 at the latest.
exit poll This reflects Trump’s control over the Republican base, and emphasized that his supporters had already decided to vote for the former president months in advance.
But exit polls also show that Trump’s march to the nomination is unlikely to lead to an upset in the general election.
Ms. Haley fared significantly better than Mr. Trump among moderate voters, who are likely to be the most important group in deciding November’s election. Haley ran neck-and-neck with Trump among college graduates, another group Trump has traditionally struggled to gain support from.
The former South Carolina governor also leads Trump among voters opposed to a national abortion ban, reportedly supporting a 16-week abortion ban and calling for an end to Roe v. Wade. This could pose a problem for Trump, given that he has boasted that he will do so.
President Trump claims Democrats were able to vote in the South Carolina primary, but exit polls showed only 5% of Republican primary voters identified as Democrats.
“They say he’s the most united Republican Party they’ve ever seen, but it’s not the most united Republican Party. Fifty-nine percent of Haley voters said they wouldn’t vote for him,” said former George W. Bush Mark. Thiessen says: a White House official said Monday on Fox News.
Haley has vowed to remain in the race, even though she has no path to the nomination and hasn’t won a single state so far.
The former United Nations ambassador argued that it was significant that 40% of primary voters did not support Trump.
“I’m an accountant. I know 40 percent is not 50 percent. But I also know that 40 percent is not a small number. Americans deserve a choice in this election. And I have an obligation to give it to them,” Haley said after the loss in South Carolina.
The Trump campaign dismissed analysis of key exit polls that suggested something was wrong for Trump.
They instead point to general election polls showing the former president leading President Biden in hypothetical general election matchups at the national level and in key battleground states.
Trump’s senior adviser Jason Miller on Monday highlighted RealClearPolitics polling averages that showed Trump winning Arizona by about 5 points, Georgia by 7 points, Michigan by 5 points and Nevada by about 5 points. showed that he was leading Biden by 8 points.
Polls show a very close race in Wisconsin, and recent polls in Pennsylvania show Biden with a lead.
Biden campaign officials have long argued that Trump’s approval ratings would worsen as more voters paid more attention and began to identify the former president as the Republican candidate.
Days before Saturday’s primary, Trump had to contend with an Alabama court ruling that threatened the future of access to IVF in Alabama, a trickle-down effect of the ruling overturning Roe v. Wade. was.
On the day of the primary, he told a group of black conservatives that he felt his criminal charges had given him more credibility with black voters.
Biden campaign officials believe it’s these kinds of comments that will remind voters why they won’t support Trump in November.
“There is still work for all of us to do toward a more perfect union, but Mr. Trump is pushing us backwards,” Biden said in a statement after the South Carolina Republican primary.
But Biden is not without his problems. A significant number of Michigan Democrats are expected to vote “irresponsible” in Tuesday’s primary, dissatisfied with the president’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Ultimately, strategists said the November election is likely to be close either way, and small gains or losses in close margins could prove decisive.
“I think almost all Americans have made up their minds about Trump and Biden,” Conant said. “It’s hard to imagine an election with so few undecided voters. It’s a cliché to say, but it comes down to turnout in a small number of states, and what matters is how motivated both sides are.”
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