Biden faces new moment of truth as Israel presses in on Rafah

President Biden faces a new critical moment in the Middle East as Israel insists it will invade the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

Such operations come at a time when US disapproval of Israeli actions has reached unprecedented levels.

A new Gallup poll last week showed how America’s traditional support for Israel is eroding after the death toll in the Gaza Strip rose to nearly 32,000 in less than six months.

The Israeli attack on Gaza was in retaliation for the October 7 attack by Israeli Hamas that killed more than 1,100 people.

The number of Americans who disapprove of Israel’s military action in Gaza has now increased by nearly 20 points, according to a Gallup poll.

Fifty-five percent of Americans oppose it, and only 36% approve. Back in November, the group’s poll found that Americans supported Israel’s actions by a narrow margin of 50% to 45%.

Opposition among Democratic voters became even louder. According to a Gallup poll, three out of four Democrats currently disapprove of Israel’s actions, but only 18% do. 7% did not express an opinion.

The pollster also noted that Biden’s conduct on the Gaza conflict was “lowest of the five issues examined in the survey.” They say this: “Far fewer Democrats support his handling of the economy, the environment, energy policy, and foreign affairs generally than support his handling of the situation between Israel and Palestine.” (47%) said it was for the sake of it.

The poll is the latest snapshot in a series of political moments showing Democrats’ growing anger at the actions of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israeli government. The Israeli government is considered the most right-wing in the country’s 76-year history. .

In November, a large rally in solidarity with Gaza was billed by organizers as the largest pro-Palestinian demonstration in U.S. history. Later that month, pro-Palestinian demonstrators and police clashed at the headquarters of the Democratic National Committee.

In February, more than 100,000 people voted “irresponsible” in the Michigan Democratic primary, a choice widely seen as a protest vote against Biden’s Gaza policy. Shortly after, Minnesota’s uncommitted vote reached about 19%, higher than Michigan’s 13%.

Voices on the left are increasingly calling on Biden and his administration to do more to rein in Israel’s actions.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vermont) argued last week that Netanyahu’s government should not receive “another nickel” from the United States for what Sanders called “an immoral war against the Palestinian people.” repeated. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York) called Israel’s actions in Gaza “an ongoing genocide” in her recent House of Representatives speech.

However, it was Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer of New York who emphasized that even mainstream Democrats now have serious concerns about Prime Minister Netanyahu’s actions. Schumer, the nation’s highest elected Jewish official, criticized the Israeli prime minister in his speech in mid-March and called for new elections.

None of that moved the Israeli prime minister, who responded by calling Schumer’s speech “totally inappropriate.”

Prime Minister Netanyahu also expressed his determination to continue plans to invade Rafah, where it is estimated that well over 1 million Palestinians have fled. He and his allies say such moves are essential to defeating Hamas.

An invasion would further increase pressure on Biden. At the same time, he must contend with a number of Democrats who remain hard-line and hawkish supporters of Israel. Republicans, meanwhile, are poised to accuse Biden and his party of abandoning Israel and being soft on terrorism.

Mr. Biden has significantly adjusted his rhetoric since the early months of the conflict, when he closely embraced Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. One key moment came in early February, when Biden called Israel’s response to the October 7 attack “overreach.”

Substantively, the biggest change occurred last week when the United States facilitated the passage of a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages. The United States has vetoed previous UN resolutions calling for a ceasefire three times.

The United States’ refusal to veto the deal angered Prime Minister Netanyahu, who canceled a visit to Washington by two senior government officials, Strategy Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Adviser Tsashi Hanegbi.

In an MSNBC interview in March, Biden also referred to Israel’s invasion of Rafah as a red line that should not be crossed, but added that he would never abandon Israel.

He has also been found resisting demands from progressives to impose stricter conditions on aid to Israel. He supports a proposal to provide Israel with an additional $14 billion in military aid.

The administration has generally been reluctant to explain exactly what it will do in response to the attack on Rafah.

Vice President Harris told ABC News’ “This Week” on March 24 that a large-scale Israeli operation in Rafah would be a “big mistake,” adding that in terms of results, “I’m not ruling anything out. ” he said.

But what those results will be remains a mystery.

Biden’s political fate may depend on coming up with a convincing answer.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.