Trump’s running mate: Does his choice matter?

Speculation surrounding former President Trump’s choice of running mate is heating up.

But the bigger question is: Does it matter?

Polarization among former presidents is unusual, and few voters would be able to shift in either direction depending on the vice presidential candidate. Trump is Trump, and whoever is on the bottom half of the ticket is likely to be completely ignored.

Still, the former president is sure to milk the search for a running mate with all the publicity and suspense he can get. Back in January, he told Fox News’ Martha McCallum that he “knows who it’s going to be,” but “I can’t really say that.”

Politico reported Sunday that Trump’s staff is scrutinizing potential candidates “as the former president floats a long list of names in private conversations.”

None of that changes the strange dynamics in 2024, when a major party is scheduled to nominate a defeated former president for the first time in nearly 130 years.

A poll conducted by The Economist and YouGov last week found that when asked about President Trump’s likability rating, only 3% of Americans had no opinion. When asked whether they had “very” good feelings toward him, or just “somewhat” favorable or unfavorable feelings, the overwhelming majority declared the strength of their feelings.

Forty-eight percent said they had a “very unfavorable” opinion of Trump, while 26% said they had a “very favorable” opinion. In contrast, only 9 percent of her respondents classified their feelings as “somewhat unfavorable,” and only 14 percent classified their feelings as “somewhat favorable.”

These statistics raise questions about whether there are any significant opinions that could change depending on President Trump’s choice of running mate.

“My passionate opinion is that it doesn’t matter,” said John Mac Stipanovich, a longtime Florida Republican operative and Trump critic. “Everyone, every mother’s son and daughter, already has an opinion about Donald Trump and will vote accordingly.”

Stipanovic added: “I would backpack down from the Himalayas to vote against him, but there are people who come from other countries to vote for him as well. ’s team had 7 million more people than his team, but we’ll see.”

This kind of skeptical writing is unlikely to do much to dampen speculation about the identity of President Trump’s running mate, or the alacrity with which some people appear to be seeking the job.

Sen. Tim Scott (RS.C.) has recently been revealed to be an avid Trump supporter, even after beginning his own campaign for the Republican nomination earlier this year.

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) and Rep. Elise Stefanik (RN.Y.) have made even more dramatic transitions from former critics of the president to ardent supporters.

Stefanik is one of several women reportedly being considered, including South Dakota Gov. Kristi, who first gained national attention as White House press secretary in the Trump administration. Also included are Noem (R) and Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R).

There are even more controversial women that President Trump might choose, but their chances are generally considered to be quite remote.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and former Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii fall into this category. The same goes for former TV anchor Kari Lake (R), who lost her bid for Arizona governor in 2022. Lake has many of the qualities that Trump admires, but he seems unlikely to be chosen. Senate seats this year.

There are also suggestions that a female running mate could help Mr. Trump work with suburban women. This district is an area where Trump has long faced electoral opposition.

However, this paper is based on some questionable assumptions.

First, an agitator like Greene or Lake is likely to alienate many of the voters she would attract. Second, substantive issues, including abortion, are likely to play a larger role in voting intentions than the mere presence of women on the ballot. Third, suggesting that the vice presidential nominee would change the course of President Trump’s second term seems dubious at best.

Mike Pence was chosen in 2016 in part to reassure evangelical voters. Judging by exit polls during the Republican primary, Trump appears to need little help in that regard these days.

Indeed, some insiders argue that the choice of running mate will indeed be important. But they tend to frame their beliefs in terms of the usefulness of getting talented campaigners on the ticket.

“Having a very popular surrogate on the campaign trail who can expand and adjust their trajectory as needed can make a difference,” said Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist. “This will help in terms of responding to attacks and pre-empting situations that the campaign probably doesn’t want President Trump to deal with.”

Bonjean also insisted that candidates from battleground states “offer a lot of advantages,” but stressed that he was not referring to specific potential candidates.

In fact, few of the people most often mentioned on President Trump’s short list come from true battleground states. The only obvious exception is Lake, who has already lost the Arizona election, so it’s not clear whether it would benefit her even if she gave up on Trump’s ticket in the Senate. .

Vance’s Ohio has trended Republican in recent years. The same is true, to a lesser extent, in Florida, the home state of another candidate for the nomination, Rep. Byron Donald (R-Fla.).

Democrats are figuratively rolling their eyes at all the talk surrounding Trump’s selection, or any suggestion that choosing a female or black running mate would improve their luck with those groups.

“I don’t think it matters,” said Bakari Sellers, a Democratic commentator and former South Carolina congressman. “It’s Trump who’s standing in the way of improving his image.”

Veepstakes gossip isn’t going anywhere. Mr. Trump is likely to tease his possible choices in the coming months.

However, it is difficult to think of a name that would change the race.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.