John Yobb, CEO of Strategic National, which conducted the most accurate poll in 2016, said two murders in Michigan, allegedly at the hands of illegal aliens, led Michiganders to believe former President Donald Trump suggests that it is heading towards
with memo published On Tuesday, Job said it was difficult to write the analysis given the circumstances, but noted that as pollsters he has to “determine the impact of current events on our political system.”
“The immigration crisis affecting West Michigan will fundamentally change the outlook for the 2024 election. This will push Michigan even further into President Trump’s corner. ” Job wrote:
Job said the trend is growing in other states in the wake of “Biden’s failed immigration policies,” as in Georgia, where an illegal alien was charged with killing 22-year-old nursing student Laken Riley in February. It is predicted that there is a high possibility that it will become established. .
Job’s analysis comes on the heels of the brutal murder of 25-year-old Ruby Garcia in Grand Rapids, Michigan. As Breitbart News reported, Garcia was shot to death and left on the side of Route 131.
Police arrested Brandon Ortiz Vito, 25, an illegal immigrant from Mexico, on suspicion of killing Garcia. He is charged with felony murder, open murder, carjacking, carrying a concealed weapon and being a felon in possession of a firearm.
Ortiz-Vito was expelled from the United States in 2020 during the Trump administration, but on an unknown date he illegally crossed the southern border again, becoming one of the millions of illegal aliens who entered the country in 2021 and beyond. Ta.
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“The issue of illegal immigrants killing people in Grand Rapids is now a national topic, and it won’t go away anytime soon,” Job wrote about Garcia’s murder.
Similarly, Yob is focusing on the murder of 22-year-old Leah Gomez, who was shot to death with an AR-15 in Grand Rapids in front of her 1-year-old daughter in May 2023. In February, a jury convicted Luis Bernal Sosa, 27, an illegal immigrant from Mexico, of Gomez’s murder.
Like Ortiz-Vito, Gomez entered the country illegally for the purpose of fleeing.
“Families in the suburbs, as far north as West Michigan, are beginning to realize that they now have an open southern border in their backyards, and they don’t like it,” Job wrote. “They’re going to hear about this over and over again in the media.”
Ruby Garcia (Photo via Facebook)
Yobb wrote that Trump “single-handedly succeeded in rebalancing Michigan’s electorate” in the 2016 election, bringing in working-class voters and union households that had long been part of the Democratic coalition. ing. The redistricting makes Trump the first Republican to win the Wolverine State in a presidential election since 1988.
“He overperformed in blue-collar areas of the state, including Macomb County, mid-Michigan, and northern Michigan,” Job wrote. “He won the votes of autoworkers and working families, took his coalition government away from the Democratic Party, and left the Democratic Party as the party of liberal elites on the East and West Coasts.”
At the same time, President Trump’s performance deteriorated in Oakland County in the southeastern part of the state and Kent County, home to Grand Rapids, due to political realignment. These voters, often referred to as “soccer moms” in the early 2000s, are ready to “come back” to the Republican Party as “security moms,” Job writes.
The popular term “soccer mom” was used in the 2000 and 2004 campaigns to describe more establishment Republicans.Candidates such as George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush were preferred and appealed to these voters. Despite the difficult issue of abortion, they have achieved varying degrees of success. Their strategy worked well in attracting West Michigan’s traditional establishment voters into the Republican field. However, they ultimately lost out as statewide candidates in Michigan due to their poor performance with blue-collar working families.
[Emphasis added]Due to the massive problems at the border and the media attention that comes with it, these “soccer moms” are now turning into “security moms” in West Michigan. And he changed his perspective on the presidential election. The immigration crisis is set to boil over this week as attention turns to Bernal-Sosa’s sentencing and today’s arrest of Ortiz-Vite on murder charges. One is a terrible tragedy, and two is a trend that voters will not easily accept. Simply put, the immigration crisis will likely push President Trump into a corner with West Michigan’s historically centrist Republicans, who were torn apart in the recent presidential election. [Emphasis added]
Specifically, Yob looked at voting data in Kent, Oakland, and Grand Traverse counties from the past two elections, showing a marked shift toward Democrats in 2020 compared to 2016.
In 2016, Trump won Kent County with 148,180 votes to twice-defeated presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s 138,683 votes. But in 2020, Biden defeated Trump in Kent County by more than 20,000 votes, 187,915 to 165,741.
“Changing the electoral makeup of this single county in 2024 will change Michigan’s outlook, with ripple effects on similar counties such as Grand Traverse and Oakland, making Michigan once again a Trump-friendly force.” It will come back strong,” Job insists.
Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally for auto parts manufacturer Drake Enterprises in Clinton Township, Michigan, on September 27, 2023. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Trump lost to Clinton by about 54,000 votes in Oakland County, northwest of Detroit. In 2020, the gap with Biden doubled to 110,000.
A similar trend was seen in Grand Traverse County, where Democrats gained support from the 2016 election to the 2020 election. Mr. Trump won the country in both cycles, but was even closer in 2020, defeating Ms. Clinton 27,413 to 20,965 votes, compared to 30,502 votes last time, according to Mr. Job’s memo. Biden lost the county by 28,683 votes.
“I first learned that Michigan was transitioning to a Trump administration in 2016, but it’s happening as early as 2024,” Job told Breitbart News in a statement. “Biden’s dangerous immigration policies, which led to multiple murders in Grand Rapids, could put Michigan out of reach for Democrats and President Trump’s return to the White House.”
A screenshot of the RealClearPolling average from before Garcia’s murder in Michigan, which Mr. Job provided in his memo, shows Mr. Trump leading Mr. Biden by 3.5 percentage points, with Trump trailing in six of the eight polls included in the average. Mr. Trump held a lead of 2 to 8 percentage points, but the remaining polls show Mr. Trump leading Mr. Biden by 3.5 percentage points. He and Biden tied the two.
Immigration issues are likely to affect voting races in Michigan as well, with the leading Republican candidate, former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), in particular competing against Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.). MI) In a hypothetical general election matchup, according to Emerson College/the hill The poll was conducted March 14-18, before Garcia’s murder.
