CLosses are short, gains grow. It’s Wall Street’s oldest cliché, and Rishi Sunak is essentially a banker rather than a politician, so in retrospect perhaps we should have anticipated how he would react to the current collapse in Conservative share prices.
His gamble to fix the country has not paid off, so he is liquidating positions, selling shares and retreating. On Wednesday Mr Sunak gave off the air of being tired of waiting for the inevitable and wanting it to be over quickly. What he doesn’t seem to realise – judging by the seasick looks on the faces of ministers queueing up behind him, many do – is how different politics is from banking. Now the run is on. Contrary to reported advice The comments of Conservative electoral guru Isaac Levido are a tacit admission that things are not going to get better, but are likely to get worse. And just like that, he has effectively turned the campaign into a public admission of failure.
By breakfast on the first day of the campaign, Mr Sunak had already admitted that “we haven’t made as much progress on NHS waiting lists as I would have liked” and that flights to Rwanda were It didn’t actually take off Before the election (Nigel Farage is not officially standing this time, having lost seven elections in a row, but is expected to benefit from the peak of small boat travel in June for his Reform Party), by the afternoon Cabinet Secretary Simon Case, in response to the Covid poll, in case voters had forgotten about Partygate, was describing Boris Johnson’s government as “the worst governance in history”. It was as if someone had actively prepared a campaign around everything that voters were most angry about.
What’s next? Red lights are flashing all over the criminal justice system, with police chiefs revealed this week to have privately discussed asking their departments to investigate. Delaying arrest Prisons are overcrowded because the Conservatives have failed to expand cell space or reform the penal system. Already, prisoners are being released early to ease hellish overcrowding, and from this week, sentences will be reduced by up to 70 days, despite the understandable grief of victims.
But this election will not be an easy one for Labour. Firstly, all these issues will likely have to be resolved by Labour before July 5th. And only once they have the keys to the Treasury in hand will they be able to understand exactly why Sunak chose to resign at the time he did. Inflation has fallen but not necessarily disappeared, with some speculating it will recover in the autumn, and borrowing this month was lower than expected. On top of all their other cash flow difficulties, the new Labour government will need to find billions to pay for the naturally large compensation payments to victims of the infected blood scandal that Sunak announced as his deciding factor in stepping down.
Wednesday’s election announcement took them by surprise, but the cleverness of Keir Starmer’s initial announcement suggests his team is ready for its most carefully prepared campaign yet, although they are yet to finish choosing candidates in dozens of constituencies (including Islington North, where Jeremy Corbyn is expected to run as an independent).
But Labour’s thinking appears unfinished in several key manifesto areas, the party remains unpleasantly divided over Gaza and Angela Rayner remains under police investigation over the sale of her former council home. Starmer’s fairly distanced leadership style means colleagues sometimes struggle to understand his intentions, but it is also a potential weakness in a campaign where a nationally scattered team must make quick, snap decisions under pressure.
But for now, these problems pale in comparison to a Conservative leader who pitched himself as the man to clean up the Conservative party’s mess, then resigned when the job was at best half done, now trying to lead a rebellious party into what seems like a suicidal mission.
By going into a summer election that few saw coming, Mr Sunak made the most of the only advantage he had left – surprise. But rather than confound his opponents, he somehow managed to mislead his own team, leaving MPs baffled by Downing Street’s apparent incompetence and wondering whether the inevitable postmortem can be contained until voting day.
That the prime minister appears to have gone to the Palace to ask for the dissolution of Parliament before informing his cabinet shows just how little trust he has among his colleagues not to leak information or stage a last-minute rebellion. Now the ruthless anger of some of his closest allies, especially those without the Sunak wealth to cushion his expected downfall, may come to haunt him up until and after voting day.
But by choosing not to hang on until the end, Mr Sunak has done the right thing for a country tired of this psychological drama – and perhaps the right thing for his family too. He has chosen to minimise his losses. Let the winners run.
