Closing arguments in former President Trump’s criminal trial are scheduled for early this week, and the verdict in the historic case could have significant implications for the 2024 election, in which the former president is contesting the White House against President Biden.
Trump currently holds a slight lead in national polls and in most of the key battleground states that will determine the outcome of reelection.
But Trump faces a trial in New York City that could see him convicted of some or all of the roughly 30 felony state charges he faces, making him the first former and current president in U.S. history to do so.
“I don’t think a conviction would fundamentally change the face of the race,” veteran Democratic pollster Chris Anderson told Fox News. Neil Newhouse, a longtime Republican pollster, went further, arguing that a conviction of Trump “wouldn’t change anything.”
What Americans are saying about the Trump trial
Former President Trump in Manhattan Criminal Court, New York City, May 21, 2024. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
They pointed to the fact that “attitudes are very set” regarding both the Republican former president and his Democratic successor in the White House.
Trump is charged with falsifying business records in connection with payments he made to porn actress Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about an alleged affair he had with Trump during the 2016 election. Trump’s former lawyer, Michael Cohen, paid Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, $130,000 in exchange for keeping quiet about an alleged affair with Trump in 2006.
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Both Cohen and Daniels testified for the prosecution and were grilled by Trump’s defense team during cross-examination. The case has garnered widespread attention from cable news stations, online and on social media.
In this courtroom sketch, Michael Cohen (right) is cross-examined by his lawyer Todd Blanche (center) during former President Trump’s criminal trial in state court in Manhattan, New York City, on May 14, 2024. (Reuters/Jane Rosenberg)
The former president has repeatedly denied falsifying business records or having a sexual relationship with Daniels, and has repeatedly claimed, without presenting any evidence, that the case is a “sham trial instigated and prosecuted directly from within the White House and the Department of Justice.”
Trump has also been fined several times and threatened with jail time by the judge in the case for violating a gag order aimed at protecting witnesses and jurors from the former president’s verbal attacks.
A national Fox News poll conducted earlier this month found that nearly half of registered voters questioned said Trump had acted illegally in violation of campaign finance laws, and another quarter said he had acted unethically.
Trump is aiming to flip Democratic states to Republicans in a rematch with Biden in 2024.
Only 27% said the former president committed no significant wrongdoing, but that number jumped to 54% among Trump supporters.
The same survey showed that voters are sharply divided on whether Trump’s legal treatment was fair (51%) or unfair (47%). As expected, there are stark partisan divisions, with 9 in 10 Democrats saying the former president was treated fairly, while 85% of Republicans disagree.
Would a guilty verdict for President Trump dramatically change the status quo in the presidential election?
Former President Trump speaks to the media outside a courtroom on May 13, 2024, in New York City. (Seth Wenig/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)
Several recent national polls suggest the answer is not, in fact, that’s the case.
Sixty-two percent of voters questioned in the Quinnipiac University poll said a conviction would not affect their vote in the presidential election, while 15% said it would make them more likely to vote for Trump and 21% said it would make them less likely to vote for the former president.
Moreover, a national ABC News/Ipsos poll found that 8 in 10 Trump supporters said they would support the presumptive Republican presidential nominee even if he was convicted in court, while 16% said they would reconsider their support and 4% said they would no longer support Trump.
Anderson, a member of Fox News’ election decision team and the Democratic partner of the Fox News Poll, compared the possibility of a conviction to the infamous video that briefly damaged Trump’s chances of winning the 2016 presidential election.
“Trump’s approval ratings may suffer an Access Hollywood-style slump and he may be temporarily chilled among some of his most ardent supporters, but he will likely be forgiven by November,” Anderson said. “So while I don’t think a conviction would fundamentally change the face of the race, it certainly would set new contours that would have meaning in a close race.”
Several lawmakers stand outside the Manhattan Criminal Courtroom during former President Donald Trump’s trial in New York City on May 13, 2024. Trump faces 34 charges of falsifying business records in connection with hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels. He has pleaded not guilty and denies having had an affair with Daniels. (Mark Peterson/Pool via Reuters)
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“The stance on both President Biden and former President Trump is so set that even if they are convicted on the hush money issue, it will not have any impact on the outcome of the presidential vote,” said Newhouse, a pollster for four Republican presidential campaigns and co-founder of the political research and polling firm Public Opinion Strategies.
“Trump’s supporters believe this is just a political witch hunt, while his opponents are convicting him even before the trial has begun,” he stressed.
But Anderson stressed that the historic trial will have an impact.
“Whatever the verdict, this trial is clearly not something that Trump wants to deal with right now, and it’s not helping him,” Anderson said. “What would help him would be an acquittal, where he could claim innocence, but even if that were the case, it’s hard to imagine that it would be entirely to his advantage.”
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