A new poll shows former President Trump trailing President Biden by three points in Nevada. AARP announced Tuesday.
The poll found that 48% of Silver State voters support Trump and 45% support Biden, with Trump holding a large 12-point lead over the president among seniors.
The result was a win for Biden, who had trailed Trump by double digits in polls earlier this year.
Add in independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Mr. Trump’s lead widens to 7 points. Mr. Kennedy has not yet qualified to appear on the Nevada ballot but has pledged to do so in all 50 states, a move that, while unlikely to win, could tip the balance of the race.
Nevada is expected to be one of the most crucial states in the presidential election, with its three electoral votes at stake as one of just a handful of true battleground states. Biden won the state by just 2.7 percentage points in 2020.
The state is also facing a close Senate election this year, with Senator Jacky Rosen (Democrat) running for re-election.
According to the AARP poll, Rosen is leading Republican candidate Sam Brown by 5 points among all voters, but Brown has a 5-point lead among older voters.
Pollster Jeff List predicted that “split-ticket” voters – those who support both Trump and Rosen, or Biden and Brown – could play a key role.
“When you look at older voters, 43 percent vote Republican and 35 percent vote Democrat, but 23 percent split their vote,” List told AARP.[That’s] This indicates that there are more voters available now than in recent elections.”
The AARP poll was conducted June 12-18 among approximately 1,400 voters.
