Defeat, deter, and dissuade: this is how Israel will wage a three-front war against Iran and its proxies.
Tehran is the head of this immortalHydraBut for Israel to get there, it will need to get rid of the other two leaders.
Each front poses an existential threat to Jerusalem. It is best to isolate and defeat each threat one by one. But the situation is not favorable for Israel. Support from the Biden administration is waning.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah is threatening to intimidate. The Iranian-backed paramilitary leader Sayed Hassan Nasrallahrecently threatened Israel, saying that if all-out war broke out between Hezbollah and Israel, “there would be no rules, no red lines that must not be crossed.”
Last fall, Hamas became Israel’s most immediate threat when the terrorist group invaded Israel from Gaza.They killed 1,200 people and took another 250 hostages.October 7th.
but HezbollahLebanese terrorist groups threaten Israel’s northern border with more than 150,000 rockets, missiles and drones, and as many as 50,000 fighters. Iran, through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, funds, trains, equips and commands proxy forces to attack Israeli and U.S. interests throughout the region. Build nuclear weapons In the background.
As Hezbollah increasingly threatens Israel, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General C.Q. Brown has warned that “the United States will likely not be able to help defend Israel from a broader war with Hezbollah any more than it helped Israel repel a barrage of Iranian missile and drone attacks in April.”
The Biden administration Weapons shipments are being delayed or reduced For Israel, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims.
Israel must carefully consider its efforts to counter multiple threats with limited resources.
Israel’s strategy embraces decisive offensive operations to defeat Hamas at close range and expel it from Gaza while defending itself against rocket, missile and drone attacks. Defensive attacks and active defensive action are necessary to prevent Hezbollah from joining the war with Iranian support. All the while, Israel must keep a constant eye on Iran as it continues its pursuit of nuclear weapons.
Since October 7, Israel has been fighting forces that seek to destroy the country. Prime Minister Netanyahu declared war on Hamas immediately after the attack. Israeli Government Israel formalized the declaration on October 8. But by declaring war on Hamas, Israel was effectively declaring war on its allies Hezbollah and Iran as well.
Once the war began, the Biden administrationTwo aircraft carrier groupsAs Israel prepared for a ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, it sent the Israeli Navy destroyers USS Eisenhower and USS Gerald R. Ford to the eastern Mediterranean to “prevent Iran and Hezbollah from joining the Israeli-Hamas conflict,” giving Israel the space and cover to mobilize its forces.
As promised, Prime Minister Netanyahu Objectives of the ground attack on Gaza The goal is to destroy Hamas’ “military and governing capabilities” and prevent them from threatening Israel “for many years to come.” Over the past 264 days, as Palestinian civilian casualties have risen, the IDF’s tactics have been heavily criticized, but they are certainly slowly driving Hamas out of Gaza.
According to the Israeli military assessment,Hamas’ last functioning brigade may be disbandedHamas will have a presence in Rafah within the next few weeks. Of its four military battalions in Rafah, only two are functional. It needs troops in Gaza to protect areas not occupied by Hamas, but it can then move combat power north to deal with the Hezbollah threat.
Defeating Hamas is the top priority. As Israel got closer to achieving this goal, Hezbollah, disguised as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, stepped up attacks on Israel, forcing the Israeli military to move forces north to counter the threat. To keep the two Iranian proxies at bay and keep them off balance, Israel began targeting their leaders, a top-down approach designed to disrupt command and control and sow chaos within the forces.
General killed in two IDF airstrikes in December 2023 Syed Raji Mousavi In the neighbouring areas of Damascus, 11 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials At Damascus International Airport, Israel, April 2 Iranian consulate building attacked In Syria, General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who led the elite Quds Force in Lebanon and Syria until 2016, his deputy, General Mohammad Hadi Hajriahimi, and five other military officers were killed.
On June 11, IsraelHezbollah Commander Sami Taleb Abdullahand three other fighters were killed at Hezbollah’s command and control center in Juayya, southern Lebanon.100 Hezbollah terroristsSince the war began.
More recently, Israel targeted Hamas’s operations chief. Raad SaadHe was the fourth-highest ranking member of Hamas’ military wing and may have been killed in an airstrike in Al-Shati, northern Gaza.
Iran uses proxies to do its dirty work. It learned the hard way not to confront Israel directly. Iran has learned that lesson byApril 13thTehran responded to Israeli airstrikes on its consulate in Damascus by firing more than 300 missiles and drones at Jerusalem.Israel struck back on April 19th.But rather than respond proportionately to the Iranian regime, they chose to send a message that they know where Iran’s most sensitive nuclear facilities are located.Natanz — and can attack at will.
The message arrived, but Threat from Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi“The Zionist regime [Israel] “If Israel or its supporters dare to act recklessly, they will face a firm and much stronger response,” he said. Iranian military commander Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagherim told state television a “much bigger” response awaits if Israel retaliates against Iran.
Neither came to fruition.
Israel’s ability to open air corridors to Iran’s air defenses silenced the threat posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, but not that of its proxies.
Once Israel achieves its objectives against Hamas in Gaza, it will turn its attention to Hezbollah. Nasrallah understands this, as does Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei.
Israel’s approach is deliberate. The ultimate goal is a secure Israel. A nuclear Iran and Lebanon as a launch pad for it are unthinkable. Just as Hercules defeated Hydra, Israel will overcome this existential threat.
Colonel (Retired)Jonathan SweetHe served as a military intelligence officer for 30 years. Mark TothHe writes about national security and foreign policy.
