Latest Research Wisconsin and Michigan Following Saturday’s assassination attempt, it was revealed that Donald Trump is leading Biden in two of the Delaware Democrat’s three “blue wall” states that are key to Biden’s reelection.
The poll, released Friday as part of a series of battleground state surveys by the Trafalgar Group, said that if current trends continue, the former president is on track to win the 25 contested electoral votes in November.
In Wisconsin, where the Republican National Convention just concluded, Trump is leading Biden 46% to 43% of the 1,087 registered voters polled, with 7% undecided, and the remaining voters – Robert Kennedy (3%), Jill Stein (1%), Cornel West and Libertarian Party Senator Chase Oliver – all with no support, although all were closer to not supporting each other than Stein’s mere 1%.
The R+1.5 poll was conducted among a majority of Republican National Committee members from July 15 to July 17. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points and is in line with Wisconsin polling trends since Trump and Biden’s solo debate in late June.
Polls in the Badger State have shown Biden with a slight lead on average until recently, but Trump now has a 2.5% lead, as tracked by FiveThirtyEight.
Trafalgar’s survey of 1,091 Michigan voters, also conducted Monday through Wednesday, showed the race was close but with Trump leading Biden slightly, 45% to 43%. The lead is within the margin of error of +/- 2.9% but is in line with the average 2-point lead tracked by FiveThirtyEight.
Kennedy has a slightly stronger influence in the Great Lakes state than Wisconsin, garnering support from 4% of voters, while Stein and West have 1% and 5% of voters say they are undecided.
Biden was campaigning in Michigan most recently and held a rally in Detroit, where he reassured a large invitation-only crowd of supporters that he has no plans to drop out of the race.
“You’ve noticed a lot of speculation recently. What is Joe Biden going to do? Is he going to stay in the race? Is he going to drop out? Here’s my answer: I’m going to run. And we’re going to win,” the president said last week.
“I’m the nominee of this party because 14 million Democrats like you voted for me,” Biden said in this year’s primary, a beauty contest with no real competition anywhere, and none at all in states like Florida that excluded Biden’s opponents from the ballot.
“You made me your candidate, no one else. Not the press, not the pundits, not the news organizations, not the donors. You, the voters. You made the decision, no one else. I’m not going anywhere,” the president promised.
Since the rally, outside pressure on Biden has only intensified, a fact acknowledged by some of Michigan’s leading Democrats.
Senator Gary Peters Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman John McCain told CBS News he had “consulted with the president’s campaign” and conveyed his “concerns” about the “very close race” and its impact on lower-tier districts.
He declined to provide further “details” about his “frank and honest assessment” but said the campaign had “listened” to his criticisms in a “good, productive dialogue.”
Meanwhile, the Trump campaign is seeking to win Michigan, as it did in 2016, and is holding a rally in Grand Rapids on Saturday featuring candidate and running mate J.D. Vance.
Biden campaign officials said last week that the “clearest path” to getting 270 electoral votes was through Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
But there are signs that the path is now dangerously narrow, and the latest polls support the theory that time is running out for the re-election campaign to correct course.
