Jen O’Malley Dillon has moved from Joe Biden’s campaign to Kamala Harris’s, but no matter who her client is, her message is the same.
“The election will be close,” said a veteran Democratic activist, predicting, “It will be a tough fight, but Vice President Harris is in a favorable position and will win.”
Dillon said the key to victory lies in several battleground states that are not necessarily Republican or Democratic victories. The strategy was previewed on Tuesday when Harris rallied before 3,500 supporters in Milwaukee just days after the four-day Republican National Convention.
“Harris will deliver her message across the entire campaign battleground and leverage the historic infrastructure the campaign has built over the past year to help voters understand their choices in this election wherever they are. With a popular message, a strong track record on the issues that matter most to swing voters, multiple paths to the 270 Electoral College votes, and unprecedented enthusiasm, VP Harris is in a strong position to take on Donald Trump and win in 104 days,” Dillon argues.
Dillon believes Harris can “capitalize on voters who have shifted to the Democratic Party since the 2020 election and outperform Biden in the last presidential election.”
“In many cases, these voters did not vote for the Biden-Harris candidate in 2020, but as Donald Trump’s Republican Party has become increasingly radical, they have begun to support Democrats in 2022. Now that these voters supported Democrats in battleground states in 2022, retaining them in 2024 will be important,” Dillon argues.
Key to this strategy is a “significant favorability advantage among key demographic groups that have leaned Democratic since 2020.”
“Her net favorability rating is 19 points higher than Trump’s among white, college-educated voters and 18 points higher than Trump’s among voters 65 and older,” Dillon argues, citing issues such as “January 6, the conviction of Donald Trump and the Supreme Court’s exoneration decision” as resonating with these voters.
In closing the deal, Dillon highlighted the “strong campaign team” and “deep relationships in battleground states” that his Harris team inherited.
“We are using both in-person events and activities and online voter engagement to speak to voters to cut through media silos and political narratives,” she said, adding that she plans to deploy 2,000 paid staff in battleground states to canvass 3 million homes by the end of next month.
Judging by fundraising over the past few days, there’s plenty of cash: Harris’ campaign said it has raised $126 million since Sunday, with the help of 1.4 million grassroots donors and 100,000 volunteers.
Recent polls in two of those battleground states – Pennsylvania and Georgia – show the race is close, just as Dillon asserts in his memo.
A North Star Opinion poll conducted July 20-23 showed Trump leading by two points in the Keystone State in a head-to-head race against Harris, with Gov. Josh Shapiro emerging as Harris’ running mate.
A Landmark Communications poll of 400 Georgia voters conducted on Monday, the day after President Biden gave up his reelection bid, showed Trump’s approval rating at 45.8%, just 1.5% ahead of Harris in a six-way race that also included Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (4%), independent candidate Cornel West (1.1%), Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver and Green Party candidate Jill Stein (0.3% each).
