A new poll in battleground states in the upper Midwest shows the presidential election outcome is difficult to predict, in the latest sign that Democrats are trying to put Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of their list.
of Detroit News–WDIV TV A live dial-in poll conducted July 22-24 after President Biden dropped out of the presidential race showed Democratic front-runner Harris leading Republican candidate Donald Trump by a margin that was largely statistically insignificant.
The difference in support between the two candidates is just 0.3 percentage points: Harris has 41.6% and Trump has 41.3%, a margin of error of less than four percentage points.
The math gradually improves for Democrats if Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who has been rumored to be a potential running mate, is counted as Harris’ running mate. In that scenario, Harris would have a 43.6% to 41.3% lead, but that would still be within the margin of error in her calculated home state race. This suggests that an all-female slate may not have the electoral clout some Democrats think.
With neither the vice president nor the former president coming close to a majority, third-party candidates have a strong presence in the Wolverine State, most notably former Democrats who could play a role in disrupting the battle for the state’s 15 electoral votes.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in Michigan Natural Law Party The poll puts his approval rating at 9.7%. Given that support for third-party candidates typically declines as an election approaches, it will be interesting to keep an eye on future polls that show his approval rating declining and see where RFK’s supporters ultimately end up.
But given the slim margin between Trump and Harris, Kennedy is not the only long-shot candidate who could upset the hopes of the Republican and Democratic candidates.
Chase Oliver of the Libertarian Party has 0.7% support, Jill Stein of the Green Party has 0.5% support, and “other candidates” have 0.3% support.
And 5.6% of Michiganders are still undecided about who they will support.
The poll suggests Biden’s decision to drop out is spurring a resurgence among Democrats, with 46.4% of voters under 30, 38.5% of Black voters and 36.6% of self-described “hardline Democrats” saying they are more excited about Harris running than the current president.
As is often the case in polls of the Trump-Harris race, there is a serious gender gap: Trump has the support of a majority of men, with 50.3% approval rating compared to 35.3% for the vice president and 8% for Kennedy.
But women voters are strongly supporting the first black woman to lead a major party.
Harris has an approval rating of 47.4%, while 33% of women support Trump and 11.2% support Kennedy.
While the poll is limited by its small sample size of black voters, it still represents bad news for Trump’s ambitions to reach minorities.
No African-Americans said they supported the former president, but 82.1% backed Harris and 11.5% backed Kennedy.
Any path to victory for Trump and Harris will require upsetting Kennedy’s hold on independents.
RFK Jr. has a slim majority of 27%, Harris has 26%, Trump has 25% and 18% are undecided. Given the limited sample size of independents, it’s clear how this group will fare.
This is the second poll this week showing a deadlocked race in Michigan. Emerson College Taking into account the expanded field of presidential candidates, Harris and Trump were tied at 44%.
