NEW YORK — Vice President Harris’ selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D) as her running mate has sealed her 2024 presidential tally, and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) is confident Republicans will win overall.
Speaking to The Hill in a wide-ranging interview from New York City on Tuesday, Johnson predicted Republicans would win a triple win in this presidential election cycle and said having Walz on the ticket would make things easier for Republicans heading into November.
Johnson, who won the presidency in a historic move last year, said he believes the Republican conference will rally around his bid to stay on as speaker, and that a strong performance in November would help bolster that bid.
To be sure, those sentiments are in line with the optimistic outlook Johnson has expressed in recent months, but Tuesday’s optimism came as the 2024 election cycle enters a new phase.
“I think the matchup is good,” Johnson said when asked how the Republican convention would respond to the nominees, shortly after Harris selected Waltz as her vice president. “For our purposes, we’re pleased that Harris picked Waltz, because the party can’t get away from track record, and I don’t think that’s going to resonate with the public.”
“Before all the developments of the past few weeks, we were on track for Republicans to win decisive victories in both the House and the Senate,” Johnson continued. “I believe we remain on that trajectory.”
“We’re very bullish about November,” he added.
“I believe all current council members will be re-elected.”
Johnson spoke to The Hill during a 20-state campaign tour in August, running everything from battleground states to Democratic strongholds in an effort to expand his majority and stay in power.
Sources told The Hill that the speaker met on Tuesday with two New York Republicans from districts won by President Biden in 2020, Rep. Mike Lawler and Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, as well as Rep. Andrew Garbarino of New York, who represents an area former President Trump narrowly won in the last election.
The speaker will travel from the West Coast to New York, then travel to Maine’s 2nd District, represented by Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, on Wednesday to open a Republican National Congressional Committee (NRCC) battle station, before heading up the coast to Virginia to campaign with Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA), a Republican member of Biden’s district, later this week.
Johnson said he has campaigned in 147 cities and 32 states so far, and that of the 20 states he will visit in August, eight will be new to him.
Speaking from the 79th floor of a Midtown Manhattan skyscraper overlooking New York City, the speaker predicted that every Republican incumbent would be re-elected to the House of Representatives in November — an ambitious prediction, especially in New York, a Democratic stronghold that is home to five of Biden’s 17 Republicans.
“New York is critical to our majority, and so is California and other battleground states. We have extraordinary incumbents in these districts who are running fantastic reelection campaigns, and it’s been very rewarding to see that,” Johnson said. “They’re outworking their opponents, and in many cases, raising more money. And that’s encouraging because they have the right message, the right tone, they know their communities and their districts, and they’re making a very compelling case for why they need to be reelected.”
Johnson declined to predict how many seats the party will win in November, saying he “doesn’t want to put them at a disadvantage,” but predicted “their numbers will improve dramatically” after House Republicans struggled to secure a one-seat majority in parts of this Congress.
“We’re going to have a significant majority,” the speaker said. “I’m not expecting, and I don’t think anybody paying attention is expecting, a 35-seat or 40-seat majority. It’s not possible anymore because of the number of battleground districts that have been drastically reduced by gerrymandering and redistricting. But I think we can increase our majority exponentially, and I think that would be very helpful.”
“We expect a Republican majority in the Senate and we expect Donald Trump to return to the White House,” he continued, “so we are also planning a very aggressive first 100 days agenda for Congress in that environment, assuming we have a united government.”
Decision Desk HQ had predicted a Republican trifecta, but President Biden’s withdrawal from the race created a turbulent political environment, leading DDHQ, like other forecasters, to pause their model.
Asked what one piece of friendly advice he would give to Trump in the final stretch before Election Day, Johnson reiterated the message he has been pushing since Biden left office and Harris took over: focus on policies, not people.
“I’ve been talking to him over the last few days about the campaign and our message, and I think he understands and agrees with my assessment that this is a battle of policies, not a battle of personalities,” Johnson said. “And the more we emphasize Kamala Harris’ actual track record — her track record, not her rhetoric — I think the more we’ll be in our interest and the more we’ll be in the interest of the country.”
But the implication contrasts with Trump’s remarks during an interview at the National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ) conference last week, in which he said Harris “just happened to become black” in recent years, sparking criticism from both parties.
Asked about his comments, Johnson paused briefly before telling The Hill he hadn’t watched the interview in full and reiterated his message of focusing on policy, not personalities.
“I haven’t seen the whole interview, I’ve just seen some of the highlights. I think we all need to be very rigorous in putting this on the record,” he said.
Johnson confident his role as Speaker will unite Parliament
Johnson has made it clear in recent months that he wants to remain the Republican leader of the House of Representatives in the next Congress and is hopeful and confident that his role as speaker will allow him to do so.
But he will face obstacles, including opposition from conservative Republicans, even if Republicans keep the House.
That list is also likely to include Republican hardliners Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who launched an unsuccessful effort to oust Johnson earlier this year.
The opposition could create a similar situation to when then-Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) struggled to become speaker in January 2023, with the House’s slim Republican majority giving a small number of opponents the power to block his bid as speaker. McCarthy ultimately won the top spot on the 15th ballot.
Asked Tuesday how much support he needed to win, Johnson declined to provide a specific figure but was adamant that the convention would ultimately back him, which would be more likely if he could help expand the Republican majority in November.
The Speaker pointed to the importance of the election and argued there was little appetite for drama in January.
“I think continuity is going to be very important in terms of leadership because once the strategy is laid out, it’s going to have to be executed,” he said. “I think everybody, and everyone in the conference understands that the stakes are very high and we have a lot of responsibility and we don’t want to have a lot of drama going on internally.”
Johnson continued, arguing that “all these factors favour maintaining stability in leadership.”
“So I expect that’s going to happen. We don’t know what the vote will be,” he added. “I’m an optimist and I think we’re going to bring everybody together and we’re going to have great unity going forward.”
But for now, Johnson plans to continue traveling throughout August for election campaigning, likely right up to Election Day, before taking a short break in September to take care of House of Commons duties.
Asked Tuesday about his hobbies and how he relaxes, the House speaker, who has been thrust into Washington’s spotlight after McCarthy’s ouster last year, said he likes to spend his free time with his family, including two daughters in law school, one son at the Naval Academy and a 13-year-old who still lives at home.
“So, all the free time I have had over the last few years has been spent playing ball games and playing with my kids, which is where I get a lot of joy,” he added. “I haven’t had time for my hobbies over the last few years.”
Asked if he was ever in the stands yelling at umpires’ calls, the chairman said he preferred to keep a low profile, but made a subtle criticism of Washington politicians’ penchant for spending their days off on the golf course.
“I enjoy spending time with my family, and I haven’t been able to do that enough lately,” Johnson said. “So if I have a free Saturday, it’s definitely not going to be on the golf course. I’m going to be spending it with my kids. That’s my priority. That’s the way I live.”
