The storm swirling around the Democratic Party’s electoral prospects is by no means limited to President Biden’s continued campaign: Biden’s mental frailty and the concerted denial surrounding it, while dangerous to the administration, only magnified the seriousness of the party’s impending political liquidation.
Vice President Kamala Harris is currently Officially replaced Biden has been nominated as the Democratic presidential nominee, but the selection of his successor will do little to address the fundamental challenges that threaten the party’s political survival.
Democrats lost their 5-point lead in the national polls identification Over the past three years, the margin has narrowed since the beginning of the Obama administration. More favorable than Republicans Even before Biden’s mental state was fully revealed to the public.
The latest polls are still scarce since Biden’s sudden withdrawal, but the lead in battleground states is about 1 percentage point Since Harris became a candidate, she has voiced her support. As Harris’ honeymoon period as a candidate comes to an end, polls are showing that she is Unlikely To defeat former President Donald Trump.
Harris’ chances of winning have little to do with her personal ability.ReorganizationInstead, mainlyCauseddue to the Democratic Party’s adverse policies and the party’s refusal to amend those policies or voice its opposition to those policies.
Ann Anxious Border, Inflationary Budget Deficit,Not compatible Homeless, Anti-Israel pandering and unmanageable, existentially dangerous funding. Proxy War These policies toward Russia constitute the underlying atmospheric instability that is fueling the Democratic Party’s political storm.
Democrats now have no choice but to throw Ms. Harris into the center of that storm. The Democratic presidential nominee’s likely loss is not the result of any personal animosity toward Ms. Harris or Mr. Biden. But the dynamics of post-primary turnover present a unique challenge for Ms. Harris.
Harris will not receive the standard party endorsement for the presidential nomination. She was not chosen by millions of primary voters. Thousands The convention’s delegates were left with few options after Biden dropped out: The primaries were already over, leaving Harris to face the general election as the candidate without any direct party involvement with voters.
Harris therefore skipped the primary entirely, making her a completely inexperienced candidate in the general election as well — a less shocking outcome given Biden’s lack of testing in the 2024 primary (which allowed him to avoid true primary competition). revelation About his true condition during the first presidential debate with President Trump.
Unlike Biden, Harris was not fully campaign-tested in the 2020 primary. Dropped out This was before the first states had voted and the Democratic Party had zero delegates, and historically, before she had served three and a half years as vice president. Unpopular management.
Harris also would not be able to meaningfully distinguish her policy platform from that of the Biden administration — to do so would be to admit that she was not a significant player in the administration.
But being vice president is the basis for Harris’ nomination. In the 2020 primary, she was clearly rejected by Democratic voters based on her record to date. in charge About the illegal immigration crisis.
Candidate Harris will therefore be representative of the Biden administration’s track record, despite recent media attempts to do so. Walk back Her unofficial title is “Border Emperor.”
But Democrats’ political dilemma is not just about Harris, as it is about Biden: Even the most likely Democratic alternatives to Harris are losing to Trump. voteThat’s better than what Biden got in those same states after he beat Trump by double digits in the June 27 debate, but it’s still far from successful.
Meanwhile, independent-minded authorities departure Democratic supporters came in droves, including West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, 2020 presidential candidate and former Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson, 2020 presidential candidates Andrew Yang and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., among a growing list of supporters.
The party has become firmly dominated by an alliance of Obama-era Clinton neoliberals and Bernie Sanders democratic socialists (as shown in the presidential elections). Recommendation Harris’ selection by the New Democrat and Progressive Party caucuses left many non-ideological pragmatists out of office.
The Democrats’ impending political disaster is reminiscent of the Republican disaster of 2008. Political toxicity The policies of then-President George W. Bush were fully carried over to the Republican presidential nominee. Americans at the time were struggling to cope with the country being embroiled in two new wars of occupation. Thousands The lives of American soldiers, contractors, and civilians in Iraq and Afghanistan were lost, the national deficit spending on those wars had once again risen to trillions of dollars, while the domestic economic bubble was heading for a burst.
The fact that the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) was not a Bush did not help him or many of the Republicans lower down the House race. 2008 ElectionRepublicans admit mistake change Many of their economic and foreign policy positions have changed under Trump’s transformative leadership.
The former president is now the Republican nominee for the third consecutive term. The Republican platform is Has been updatedThis signals an official shift away from neocon leadership.
If the Democratic Party wants to survive politically, it needs to reform its leadership and policy stance, or it will go the way of the Whigs.
Jeremy Etelson was a Democratic Party staffer in Maryland. He earned his J.D. from George Washington University in 2024 and his MA in Political Theory and Intellectual History from Cambridge University in 2019.
