Kamala Harris’ Democratic National Convention may simply be the coronation of a candidate not chosen by primary voters, but A fifty-fifty situation North Carolina has 16 electoral votes at stake.
That’s the message from the New Tar Heel State. Survey USA The poll was conducted by High Point University between Aug. 19-21, the first three days of the event in Chicago.
With most of the Chicago convention underway, Harris holds what pollsters are describing as a “slim” lead, but it’s enough to make the poll news: It marks the first time a Democrat has won the state since Barack Obama in 2008, and Obama himself has not won since Jimmy Carter’s 1976 campaign.
Overall, Harris leads registered voters 46% to 45%, with 8% undecided. Among likely voters, the vice presidential candidate leads 48% to 46%, and the poll suggests the key for Donald Trump in the state is to draw out historically likely voters who are not enthusiastic about their choice this election.
Republicans lead 50% to 40% among LVs who say they will “probably” vote in this highly-watched election, and 39% to 32% among LVs who say they are 50% likely to vote.
Beyond the top line, a key deciding factor for North Carolina voters who support Harris is whether they tuned in to the convention itself.
Those who watched very little support Trump and Harris by 62% to 26%, but those who watched the event “a little” support Harris by 48% to 44%.
Those who watched the Chicago show “a lot” were significantly more likely to support the Democratic candidate, with 73% saying they would back her, while only 22% of frequent Democratic National Convention watchers claim to support Trump.
Beyond the correlation between convention viewing and support for the vice presidential ascension, the poll offers other insights, some of which may be encouraging for Trump, including a suggestion that black men are more than twice as likely to support him as black women.
Trump’s approval rating among African-American men (19%), while certainly not surprising, is closer to the 25% to 30% range that the former president’s emissaries to the African-American community projected as a best-case scenario. While 74% of black men say they support the vice president, the numbers suggest that identity politics is not the primary motivator for a sizable share of these North Carolinians.
Black women support Harris 82% to 9%.
In another noteworthy finding, the poll showed Donald Trump with a solid lead among Hispanics, with 61% of Hispanic voters backing him, while only 36% said they supported the vice president.
Trump’s +25 with this group outperforms his overall +19 favorability rating among white voters, 55% of whom support Trump.
And the youngest voters surveyed here say they are most likely to support Trump: 53% of voters under 35 back him, giving him a 15-point lead over Harris among them.
The bad news? He won’t lead her to the other group.
Harris leads among voters ages 35 to 49, 48% to 43%, among those ages 50 to 64, 46% to 44%, and among seniors, 51% to 41%.
Meanwhile, there is a divide between voters who accept the concept of marriage and those who do not.
Harris leads single voters, beating Trump 54% to 36%, but the former president leads among those who are engaged (51% to 40%), married (49% to 41%) and widowed (61% to 35%).
In what could be further troubling news for Trump, Harris leads among moderates, 51% to 35%, and is also gaining support among those who consider themselves center-right.
Among those who say they are “very conservative,” Harris has the support of 21% and 3% are undecided, and among those who say they are “somewhat conservative,” Harris has the support of 23% and 1% back another candidate and 5% are undecided.
Trump gets over 70% in both scenarios, but he is likely to win the right-wing vote.Dangerously Liberal“Battle-state Democratic candidates appear to have fallen short of their campaign expectations heading into Labor Day.
