According to pollster Nate Silver's election projections, former President Trump has a slight lead over Vice President Harris heading into Labor Day weekend.
The latest Silver Bulletin national poll puts Harris ahead of the former president by 3.8 percentage points, but the vice president's chances of winning the Electoral College vote are declining.
Silver predicts that Trump has a 52.4% chance of winning the electoral vote, about 5% higher than Harris' 47.3%.
“This is largely due to the convention bounce adjustment that the model applies to polls conducted during or after the Democratic National Convention,” Silver said. Written “In other words, we are assuming that Harris' polls are somewhat inflated at this point, just as we assumed Trump's numbers were inflated after the Republican National Convention.”
Silver wrote that if Harris could maintain her current approval rating for another “two weeks,” “the model would become more confident that the convention phase of popularity is over, and Harris's approval rating would begin to rise again.”
A new Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll released Thursday found Ms Harris leading Mr Trump by an average of two points in seven battleground states. A survey limited to voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin gave Ms Harris a one-point lead, creating a statistical tie.
A new survey by Emerson College Poll and The Hill released Thursday morning found Trump and Harris essentially tied in battleground states.
Since replacing President Biden as the party's presidential nominee, Harris has narrowed the gap in approval ratings with the former president and erased the lead Trump had while campaigning against the incumbent president.
According to a DDHQ/The Hill poll, Harris currently has an approval rating of 49%, nearly 4 percentage points higher than Trump's 45.1%.
