A new poll released Friday puts former President Trump and Vice President Harris' presidential runoff race in Florida and Texas within the margin of error.
According to the Emerson College Poll/The Hill poll, Trump leads Harris by five points in Florida (50 percent to 45 percent) and by four points in Texas (50 percent to 46 percent).
The results are a little closer than other polls have found, but they're not entirely consistent with recent polls that have shown closer races in those states.
Since Harris became the Democratic nominee, there have been few independent polls by major organizations in Texas and Florida.
Florida was won by Democrats in the 2008 and 2012 elections, but the state has since voted for Trump twice in a row, and Harris will have a tough fight to win Texas, where Democrats have been hoping for a swing to the Democratic Party in recent years.
The Hill/Decision Desk model gives Trump an 83% chance of winning Texas and a 75% chance of winning Florida, but Florida is only rated as “Republican” and some polls in both states have Trump leading by single digits.
A Florida Atlantic University poll last month found that Trump lead By just 3 points in the Sunshine State, and in two Texas college polls Trump Take the lead He won Texas by five points.
According to the Emerson poll, Harris trailed slightly behind Trump in state favorability ratings: Her net favorability rating was +2 points in both states, while the vice president's net favorability rating was -2 points in both states.
The poll also shows a stark gender gap, with Trump leading among men in Texas by 18 points, up from 17 in 2020, and among men in Florida by 12 points, up from 9 points four years ago. Harris leads among women in Texas by 8 points, up from 3 points in 2020, and among women in Florida by 2 points.
Flipping either Texas or Florida may be a long shot, but doing so would make it easier for Democrats to reach 270 electoral votes and much harder for Republicans.
Democrats, seeking to keep control of the Senate, have also cited Republican incumbents in both states as a chance to expand their districts.
Emerson analyzed that the Florida Senate election is a close race between Sen. Rick Scott (Republican) and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel Powell (Democrat), with Scott leading by one point.
The poll was conducted September 3-5 among 815 voters in Florida and 845 voters in Texas, with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points in Florida and 3.3 percentage points in Texas.
