Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are neck and neck in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while the Democratic candidate holds a five-point lead among Michigan voters, according to battleground state polls released Thursday.
In the Keystone State, which many observers see as the key to winning the White House in this election, Trump and Harris were tied, 49 percent to 49 percent, according to a Marist Institute poll.
“Pennsylvania is attracting the most attention from presidential candidates among the Rust Belt states, and for good reason,” said Lee Miringoff, president of the Marist Institute.
“It's the biggest award in the region. [with 19 electoral votes] And the most competitive,” he added.
“Winning Pennsylvania won't guarantee the White House, but it would go a long way.”
The poll found that Pennsylvania women supported Harris by 12 points (55% to 43%), while men supported Trump by 10 points (54% to 44%).
Trump, 78, leads Harris among white voters by just three points (51% to 48%), while Harris, 59, leads Republicans among non-white voters by 21 points (59% to 38%), far short of the 82% approval rating that President Biden won with that group in 2020.
A third of Pennsylvania voters said inflation was the most important issue in this election, followed by “preserving democracy” (27%), immigration (15%) and abortion (11%), with no other issue getting above double digits.
In Wisconsin, where the gender gap was again double-digit, Harris led Trump among likely voters 50% to 49%.
Women in the Badger State supported Harris by a margin of 56% to 43%, while men supported Trump by a slimmer eight-point margin (53% to 45%).
As in Pennsylvania, Harris did not come close to Biden's 2020 support among voters of color, with just 56% supporting her compared to Biden's 73% four years ago.
Among Wisconsin voters, inflation was the top issue at 32%, followed by democracy (27%), inflation (17%) and abortion (10%), roughly matching the numbers in Pennsylvania.
In Michigan, Harris performed much better among non-white voters, leading Trump in that demographic 77% to 21%, but again fell short of the 92% performance Biden recorded in the 2020 election.
There is also a double-digit gender gap in support in the Wolverine State, with Harris leading Trump by 15 points among women (56% to 41%), while men have her ahead of the vice president by five points (52% to 47%).
“Of the three so-called 'blue wall' states, Michigan is one where there is a divide between Harris and Trump,” Miringoff said.
“Michigan's vote is driven by strong negative opinions of Trump. [vice presidential nominee JD] “Vance is clearly not providing any help to Republican candidates,” he added.
In Michigan, unlike the other two states, preserving democracy was the top issue for a majority of voters (30%), followed by inflation (29%), immigration (15%) and abortion (10%).
In 2016, Trump became the first Republican since Ronald Reagan in 1984 to carry all three states, but in 2020 Biden brought the three Rust Belt states back to the Democrats.
The Marist Poll surveyed 1,138 voters in Michigan, 1,476 voters in Pennsylvania and 1,194 voters in Wisconsin between Sept. 12-17.
The margin of error for each poll is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points in Michigan, 3.2 percentage points in Pennsylvania and 3.6 percentage points in Wisconsin.
