National political polls get a lot of attention, but the only polls that really matter are those in the handful of battleground states that will determine the outcome of the presidential election.
In a presidential election, emphasizing national polls at the expense of battleground state polls is like a doctor trying to diagnose injuries in a serious car accident victim without taking an x-ray.
Vice President Kamala Harris has held a slim lead in most of the national races. investigation Since the presidential debates, she is likely to win the national popular vote, just as Hillary Clinton and Al Gore did. 2016 and 2000 Respectively. But if she doesn't win a majority of the electoral votes like Clinton and Gore did, that will matter little.
The next six weeks will be a crucial and divisive road trip through seven battleground states, with short trips to Los Angeles, New York City, Houston, Boston and Washington, D.C. to raise much-needed campaign funds and political capital. The seven states that will see the most action are three in the Frost Belt – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – and four in the Sun Belt – Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina.
Emerson College We conducted new research into the battlegrounds following the debate. The majority of viewers The vice president appears to have outdone Donald Trump in what was likely the only debate between the two candidates, but the race remains virtually neck and neck in all seven battleground states.
Harris has been on a roll since becoming the Democratic nominee in July, while Trump has been shaky and disorganized.
Recent Analysis Quinnipiac University Surveys in northern battleground states answer that question, with voters' assessments of the candidates' abilities reflecting an even split of the vote between the two presidential candidates.
Harris and Trump receive roughly equal marks on their handling of the economy, potential national crises and, surprisingly, immigration. Trump's failure to gain a clear advantage on this divisive issue may reflect a backlash against Republicans' heated comments about Haitian refugees in Springfield, Ohio. The Democratic standard-bearer has a clear advantage on ensuring abortion rights, but that is a less important consideration for voters than the economy.
Not surprisingly, the battleground states are also the front lines in the fierce battle for control of the U.S. Senate. Six of these states are in tight races that will determine control of the closely divided chamber. Democrats have leads in all six of these races, according to Emerson polling.
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nevada) holds the largest lead at 7 percentage points. The closest Senate race is in Wisconsin, where Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads by just 3 points. In the only gubernatorial race, North Carolina Democratic Attorney General Joel Stein is leading controversial Republican candidate Lt. Governor Mark Robinson by 8 percentage points.
There are other reasons why the race is so close.
We live in a heated, hyper-partisan atmosphere that exacerbates political polarization: Voters in battleground states either hate Trump or love him, with little difference between the two extremes.
Harris' candidacy is also an uncharted waters for voters, who accepted African-American Barack Obama as president but rejected female presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, the closest the United States has come to electing a non-white woman to the nation's highest office.
The political system's stark racial and gender divisions reflect the reality that some voters are uneasy about the prospect of putting a black woman in the White House, and the failed former president sought to exploit voter anxiety by drawing attention to her district. Racial Identity At least twice in the last few months.
If the vice president overcomes these barriers in battleground states and becomes a successful chief executive, it could finally mean the end of political polarization and bigotry in the United States.
Brad Bannon Bannon is a Democratic pollster and CEO of Bannon Communications Research, which polls Democrats, labor unions, and progressive issue groups. He also hosts a popular progressive podcast about power, politics, and policy. Brad Bannon and Deadline DC.
