China and the Philippines Sending ships to Sabina Shoal The two countries withdrew the Coast Guard vessel Teresa Magbanua from this strategic spot in the South China Sea on September 14 to protect their competing territorial claims over the feature.
China would undoubtedly block any attempt by the Philippines to reoccupy the reef. Incident, and possibly war, would be likely.
1951 Mutual Defense Treaty It will inevitably be drawn into any conflict with Manila.
The 318-foot long Teresa Magbanua had been anchored off Sabina Island for more than 150 days in defense of the Philippines' territorial claims.
Both China (which it calls Xianbin Reef) and the Philippines claim Sabina Island as their sovereign territory. In Manila, the official name for the disputed area is Escoda Reef.
Beijing claims as its “blue territory” all shoals, reefs, islands, islets, other features and internal waters within the notorious “Niu Tongue” – defined by 10 lines on official maps that encircles about 85 percent of the South China Sea.
The Hague Tribunal, which rules between the Philippines and China under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea,invalidBeijing asserted extensive sovereignty over Philippine waters in 2016. China has asserted sovereignty over the Philippines with virtually no legal backing.They have consistently maintained that the decision is “illegal and invalid.”
Chinese forces have engaged in continued provocative actions in Philippine waters since mid-June, particularly at Sabina Island, Second Thomas Shoal and other locations near islands widely recognized as part of the Philippines. Journalists appearing on 60 Minutes on September 16China reportedly rammed Philippine shipIn the South China Sea where they were aboard.
Sabina Island is about 76 nautical miles from the Philippines' main island, Palawan, and is within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. Sabina Island is 648 nautical miles from China's Hainan Island. An exclusive economic zone is a stretch of water between 12 and 200 nautical miles from the coastline where a coastal nation has certain economic and other rights vis-à-vis other nations.
Teresa Magbanua has been monitoring suspected Chinese reclamation activities, including the seizure of nearby Mischief, Subi and Fiery Cross reefs from the Philippines and turning them into vast military bases. Beijing has threatened to do the same with Scarborough Shoal, which it seized in 2012.
To quote CBS's Jacqueline Williams, China is already taking advantage of the crisis.“Tactics on the brink of war”
“This time around, they may use extreme force to stop Philippine ships from approaching Sabina Reef,” said James Funnell of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy.“Embracing Communist China: America's Greatest Strategic Mistake”“The risk that China will try to sink the ship is real.”
“Neither side can afford to give in,” David Day of the Global Risk Mitigation Foundation, a Honolulu-based nonprofit that focuses on Southeast Asia, told me.
China knows it must prevent the Philippine ship from returning to Sabina Island because if it docks there it will weaken what Day rightly calls “their false territorial claims.”
The Philippines will not back down either. The Philippines is nothing more than a collection of rocks, shoals, reefs and islands, and Manila cannot allow China to grab more islands, reefs, shoals and rocks.
Fanell, a former U.S. Navy captain and director of intelligence operations for the U.S. Pacific Fleet, believes the U.S. Navy should begin providing escort services to Philippine ships once they begin their return journey to Sabina Island.
“The United States must put its words 'free and open Indo-Pacific' into practice,” he said. “If we don't, those words will ring even hollower than they already are.”
Indeed, China has ignored a series of statements from Washington and sees the U.S. remarks as “hollow.”
Biden's State Department, for example, has issued 12 written warnings.The last one on August 31— The United States is prepared to use force against China to fulfill its obligations under Article 4 of the Mutual Defense Treaty. President Biden issued similar verbal warnings on October 25 last year and April 11, among others.
Despite these warnings, China has become increasingly provocative and belligerent. Now Beijing wants to show the world just how aggressive its military can be. Chinese authorities must have known that the Philippine Coast Guard vessel involved in the collision had a “60 Minutes” crew on board.
In recent years, Xi Jinping has promoted so-called “wolf warrior diplomacy” and is now making further efforts to flaunt the ugly side of Chinese nationalism.
China's leaders are now looking for a fight. Xi Jinping is clearly willing to risk war with a US treaty ally, which means he is prepared to go to war against the US.
Conflict will soon emerge in the South China Sea.
“The real conflict has only just begun,” Day said.
Gordon G. Chang is author of The Impending Collapse of China and the upcoming Plan Red: China's Plan to Destroy America. Follow him on X. Gordon G Chang.
