Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are virtually tied in three key battleground states, according to a new statewide poll from Marist College.
of The Marist poll was released Thursday. When North Carolina voters were asked which candidate they supported, Harris and Trump were tied at 49% support, and among those who had yet to vote, 91% said they strongly supported their choice.
The race is also tight in Arizona, where Trump leads Harris by just one point, 50% to 49%, according to the Marist Institute. The situation is similar in Georgia, with 50% of voters leaning toward Trump and 49% saying they are more likely to vote for Harris.
The Marist Poll was conducted Sept. 19-24 and surveyed 4,643 voters in all three states who said they were certain to vote in this year's election.
Harris vs. Trump: The winner is clear on this key issue
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. (Getty Images)
There are 43 electoral votes at stake in the three states of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Republican Trump defeated Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016 and won all three states, but lost Arizona and Georgia to President Biden, who defeated him in 2020. North Carolina, a battleground state that Trump won twice, has an incumbent Democratic governor, and with Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson embroiled in a quagmire over allegations that he posted content to a pornography site and Democratic candidate State Attorney General Josh Stein receiving low approval ratings, the battle is likely to be tougher this year.
“North Carolina, with its 16 electoral votes, is the backup plan for the Harris and Trump campaigns after the fierce battle in Pennsylvania,” said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, president of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion Research. “North Carolina is so close, with five districts in the state lined up almost exactly as they were four years ago. It's as if the Biden era and the 2024 campaign never happened.”
Harris and Trump are tied at 48% among likely North Carolina independents. Biden won North Carolina independents by 4 points in 2020, according to exit polls. Harris leads Trump among black voters, 86% to 13%, but that's a weaker performance than Biden, who won 92% of the black vote in North Carolina in 2020. Trump leads Harris among white voters, 59% to 40%, but Harris is doing better with this demographic than Biden, who won 33% of the white vote in 2020.
The poll found the top issues for North Carolina voters are inflation (32%), preserving democracy (28%), immigration (14%) and abortion (11%).
Harris and Trump deadlocked in Pennsylvania, ex-president trailing in other 'blue wall' states: poll
Republican presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump arrives at a campaign rally at Wilmington International Airport, Saturday, September 21, 2024, in Wilmington, North Carolina. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
In Arizona, Harris is beating Trump among independents, 51% to 47%. Biden won Arizona independents by 9 points four years ago, 53% to Trump's 44%. Trump again leads Harris among white voters, 51% to 48%, but they are neck and neck among Latino voters, 51% for Trump and 49% for Harris.
The survey found that the top issues for Arizona voters were preserving democracy (27%), inflation (26%), immigration (21%) and abortion (14%).
“With Arizona's 11 electoral votes at stake, the Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate race (Rep. Ruben Gallego, R-Arizona) holds a double-digit lead,” Miringoff said. “Like other states, Arizona voters are willing to split their votes this time around, unlike the party-only voting they did in 2016 and 2020.”
Harris also led Trump among independents in Georgia by five points, 51% to 46%. As in Arizona, Biden won among independents in Georgia by nine points, giving the Peach State Democrat the first presidential election win since 1992. Trump has vigorously contested Georgia's 2020 election results and continues to make unproven claims of widespread voter fraud that Georgia officials, including Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, have denied.
Early voting begins in Illinois, North Dakota, Florida and Michigan
Harris is campaigning in Georgia, emphasizing the issue of abortion. (Photo by Joe Raedl/Getty Images)
“Georgia was the epicenter of controversy in the 2020 election, but the overwhelming majority of Georgians are confident that their election will be conducted fairly and accurately,” Miringoff said. “Interestingly, most Democrats and Republicans share this view, despite the results last time.”
Georgia voters rank inflation as the top issue (34%), followed by preserving democracy (24%), immigration (13%) and abortion (11%).
In a national Fox News poll conducted after the first debate between Ms Harris and Mr Trump, 39% of voters surveyed said the economy was the most pressing issue, well ahead of immigration (16%) and abortion (15%). All other issues surveyed were in the single digits.
“More people say food prices and housing costs are tough for their families,” the Fox News poll noted.
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A Fox News poll showed Trump leading Harris by five points on the economy.
“The stakes in this election remain in Trump's favor,” said Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster who runs the Fox News poll with Democrat Chris Anderson.
But Shaw added that Trump's “edge on economic issues has diminished. Perhaps Harris' message on housing costs and taxes, which is targeted at the middle class, appears to be working.”
Fox News Digital's Paul Steinhauser and Victoria Bharara contributed to this report.
