November will mark the first presidential election since the Roe v. Wade reversal, and the biggest test yet on how women's reproductive health will affect voting results.
Democrats won an unexpected victory in the 2022 midterm elections, riding on anger over the overturn of Roe, which legalized abortion at the federal level. And since then, the party has racked up competitive victories, largely due to the persistence of this issue.
Two years after the Supreme Court's landmark decision, Democrats are hoping the issue will resonate enough to propel Vice President Harris to the White House.
“Elections are rarely decided on one issue,” said Christina Reynolds, executive vice president of Emily's List, a group of Democratic women who support abortion rights.
“[But] “It’s clearly leaning toward one side, and that side is the Democratic Party,” she added. “People understand and see what's really going on, and the best way to address this is to elect people who will protect your rights.”
Anti-abortion advocates counter this argument by pointing to the anti-abortion policies of the governors of Georgia and Texas.
Emily Erin Davis, vice president of communications for Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, said, “Despite this, no incumbent pro-life governor or senator was defeated in 2022.”
“Since the 2022 midterm elections, SBA Pro-Life America has invested significant resources in focus groups and polling to dig into the most effective political messages heading into 2024,” she said. .
In the two years since the Supreme Court overturned Roe, the issue has largely been pushed back to the states, but conservatives and anti-abortion advocates have argued that the problem lies with the states.
“Democrats will no longer be able to maximize their gains on this issue after this election because each state will set its own rules,” said Republican strategist Ford O'Connell.
But Democrats point to polls that show the issue is tilting in their favor this November. A majority of voters have consistently opposed the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. According toMarquette Law School PollThe decision, announced last month, found 67% of respondents saying they opposed the decision, while 33% said they supported it.
on the other hand,CNN pollIn a poll released earlier this week, 52% of likely voters said they approved of Harris' approach to voters nationwide, and 31% said they felt the same way about Trump's approach.
“We're working with voters who really understand the harm caused by Trump's abortion ban,” said Olivia Capello of the Planned Parenthood Action Fund.
But Republicans point out that voters aren't just voting on abortion.
“This issue is important,” said Republican strategist Zach Roday. “But I believe this election will be about who people believe can do a better job, reduce costs, and keep us safe.”
According to data released by the Pew Research Center, 81% of voters say the economy is the most important issue, followed by 65% who say the same about health care. Fifty-one percent said the same about abortion.
Democrats point to their past success in the 2022 midterm elections after Roe's ouster. In that year's midterm elections, the expected red wave did not materialize, and many abortion-related ballot measures in red and blue states passed in support of maintaining abortion access.
This year, abortion-related bills are being considered in Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, Missouri, Maryland, New York, and Florida.
“On the ballot measure side, voters recognize that in states with direct democracy, they have an opportunity to quickly change the state of abortion access in their states,” Capello said.
And unlike in 2022, access to IVF is at the center of the debate around reproductive health care. Democrats are trying to tie Republicans to efforts to limit or restrict access to the process in states like Alabama.
However, many Republicans, including Mr. Trump, have expressed support for the process. On Wednesday, the Trump campaign said the former president would support “universal access” to in vitro fertilization if elected.
“President Trump's stance is the sentiment of the majority within the Republican Party, because at the end of the day, IVF is life-threatening,” O'Connell said.
But both candidates are tackling abortion and reproductive health issues. At a rally in Pennsylvania earlier this week, President Trump predicted that under his administration, women “will be happy, healthy, confident and free.” You will never have to think about abortion again. ”
Harris has repeatedly criticized Trump on this issue, citing Trump's appointment of conservative judges to the Supreme Court. She called Tuesday to eliminate the filibuster to codify abortion rights in the Constitution.
During a campaign stop in the battleground state of Georgia earlier this month, Harris spoke about two women who Harris said died as a result of the state's abortion ban passed by Republicans after the Roe v. Wade reversal. emphasized.
ProPublica first reported the deaths of Amber Thurman and Candy Miller. After seeking treatment for an incomplete abortion, Thurman waited 20 hours at a hospital in suburban Atlanta, where her death was largely due to delays, according to a review by the state medical board. Miller died because complications from abortion pills were not treated. Her family said they were afraid to seek treatment when it was clear the abortion was not completed.
“Does good policy, logical policy, moral policy, humane policy mean that health care providers should only begin providing that care until you are about to die?” Harris said.
Georgia's six-week ban on the procedure includes an exception to save the mother's life, but opponents say it creates confusion for doctors.
Earlier this week, Women Speak Out PAC, a partner of SBA Pro-Life America, launched a $500,000 television and digital advertising campaign in Georgia in response to Harris. The group accused Democrats, including Vice President Harris, of spreading “catastrophic misinformation” about the woman's death.
Conservatives and groups like SBA Pro-Life America are pressuring Republicans to paint their Democratic counterparts as radical and extremist on this issue, and have worked to do so in the past. .
“Many Republican candidates won by double-digit margins. We need Republicans to emphasize their support for pro-life protections, communicate compassionately about this issue, and contrast their positions with serious issues. If so, we can expect more wins in the future.unpopular“The Democratic agenda calls for unlimited abortion at seven, eight and nine months of pregnancy,” Davis said.
Roday noted that both sides are in a “situation of uncertainty” on the issue this cycle considering the top of the ticket.
“Just because he's president, [election]I believe it's a whole new dynamic,” he said.
