A new American Association of Retired Persons poll in the Keystone State shows mature voters are more likely to support Republican candidates overall than the rest of the population, key to Republican victory in November. suggests that it is possible.
But with five weeks left until voting closes, the question for Donald Trump and Senate candidate Dave McCormick is whether they can establish an advantage in the 50-plus field and win the state.
Kamala Harris leads Trump overall with a 50% to 47% approval rating, while incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey leads McCormick with a 49% to 45% approval rating. .
But the good news for Republicans is that their lead is widening among some of their most loyal voters.
Trump is up 52% to 44% among voters over 50, but ethnic divisions are predictable. The former president leads Harris among older white voters, 57% to 39%. But the vice president leads with black voters 88% to 7%.
Gender is even more subtle.
Among women overall, Harris leads 57% to 38%, showing the gender disparity seen in most polls, but among women voters over 50, Trump is tied at 48%. . The approval ratings for the former have increased by more than 15 points for both candidates. All men and elders.
Similar dynamics play out in the Senate elections.
Casey's 19-point gap with all women has narrowed to just 3 points with McCormick among women over 50. And while McCormick leads whites scoring 50 points or higher by 15 points, Casey leads blacks by 78 points.
McCormick's lead among all older voters has increased from 1 point in April to 5 points now.
However, there are some differences between races, such as ticket splitting. According to AARP, at least 25% of older voters plan to split their ballot, giving Trump a 5-point lead over Harris among the group and Casey leading by seven votes among the same group. Good news.
Impact Research's Jeff List, whose Democratic firm worked with Republican Fabrizio Ward on the study, said older voters are more motivated than younger voters, which could leverage their performance. It states that there is.
“In Pennsylvania, there remains a wide gap and disparity in willingness to vote between voters under 50 and voters over 50,” he told reporters at a briefing Tuesday. “Ninety-one percent of voters aged 50 and over say they are very motivated to vote, compared to 71% of voters aged 18 to 49 who say they are very motivated to vote.''
The polling organization conducted a survey of 1,398 likely voters between September 17th and 24th. These included “a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 470 likely voters age 50 and older, and an additional oversample of 328 black likely voters age 50 and older.” is included.
