News of a heated race in Wisconsin is flashing red flags for incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who is trying to fend off a challenge from President Trump-backed Eric Hovde, as Republicans take control of the Senate this fall. We are supporting efforts towards this.
The Cook Political Report this week moved the race to “toss-up” status, with polls and internal polls warning that Mr Hovde could close the gap with less than a month to go before election day. I'm strengthening it.
While Democrats remain largely confident that Mr. Baldwin will retain his seat, an encouraging sign for his opponents is that this fall's election campaign, in which each party will vie for the Senate majority, will be one of the most competitive in the country. It confirms that they are one.
Thad Nation, a Democratic strategist based in Wisconsin, said the incumbent's campaign “has been very vocal among its supporters that this race is heating up,” adding that “there is no doubt that this is a heated race.” '', he said, raising concerns among Democrats in a closely watched race.
“This is Wisconsin. It's a tough race. I mean, most of the statewide races here are decided by 25,000 votes or less,” Nation said. “This race is always going to be tense heading into the last three and a half weeks of this race.”
Mr. Baldwin's lead has narrowed since August, falling from a 7-point lead in August to a 2-point lead last week among the five major battleground states tested, according to research by Mr. Cook's Swing States Project. It was the closest Senate election. The average of Decision Desk HQ and The Hill polls yielded similar results, showing Baldwin currently leading by 3.5 points, a notable drop from early September, when he led by about 7 points. It becomes.
baldwinHe told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.A recent Axios report this week about Democrats' growing concerns about the Senate race after her own internal poll showed her leading by 2 points over her Republican challenger, a “very close margin.” This was also supported by the article. A recent internal investigation into the Hovde campaign showed a similar one- or two-point split, a spokesperson confirmed to The Hill.
“This is becoming one of the closest swing states in the country,” said Alec Zimmerman, a Republican strategist who served as a spokesperson for Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) during the midterm elections. .
”[Baldwin] The wind is not shaking the sails as much as it was during the past two elections, so I think Mr. Hovde's momentum on the ground is real. ”
Baldwin isFirst woman elected to the Wisconsin State LegislatureSix years ago, she won a second term, easily defeating a challenge from Republican Leah Vukmil, who was backed by former President Trump.
Baldwin's seat this time isThis is seen as a major opportunity for Republican support.After Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) decided not to run, some within the party briefly worried about his chances of winning, but the Madison-area businessman,millionairehas emerged as a leading candidate in the battleground state race.
Hovderan for Senate in 2012However, he lost in the primary to former Governor Tommy Thompson (Republican) and also to Mr. Baldwin. He is currently running again with support from Trump, and has the benefit of being able to finance most of his campaign with his own funds.
And as polls suggest an increasingly competitive environment, spending on Republican campaigns is also pouring in.
The Senate Leadership Fund, a top super PAC run by advisers to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), recently made a huge $17 million ad buy in the state.According to the Wall Street Journal.The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported.Republicans are expected to overturn Democrats' advertising advantage in the coming weeks.
Baldwin is “in a close race in Wisconsin, and the R's just put a lot of money into the race,” Axelrod said.Said in X's post. “[A] Spending Edge late could tilt this race. ”
However, Baldwinraised and spent more moneySo far, according to the most recent July FEC filing compiled by Open Secrets.
Some polls contradict Cook's findings and internal polling, suggesting Democrats have a stronger advantage. For example, a Marquette University Law School poll released last week showed Baldwin leading his challenger by seven points.
The big boost for Baldwin this term is that she's on the presidential election ballot, Market Poll Director Charles Franklin told The Hill. Marquette estimates Vice President Harris has a 4-point lead over Trump in a head-to-head race, and Democrats hope the new energy behind Harris' fast-paced campaign will help their candidate lose votes. are.
“On election night, I’ll take a look… [Trump] We won the state by one point, but would that be enough to drag Hovde over the line or drag Baldwin down? To really force Baldwin into a tie or loss, Trump would have to win the state by two points or Do we need to win by three points? ” Franklin said.
Notably, recent polls from Quinnipiac University and Emerson University both found that Trump had a slight edge in the White House race in the state, contradicting market findings. The DDHQ average gives Republicans a 0.1 point lead.
Trump wins Badger Stateby less than 1 point2016 and President Bidenturned it overIn 2020, he ranked in the Democratic column by a similarly narrow margin.
“I think what you’re going to see is a really, really close race to the top of the ticket. [a] The Senate race is really close. And I think they're probably a little more connected than people realize at this point,” Zimmerman said.
A victory for Hovde on November 5 could give Republicans a majority in the Senate. Republicans need just two seats to take control, and some of Baldwin's fellow Democratic incumbents are also vulnerable. In Montana, Republican Tim Sheehy is currently favored to oust Sen. Jon Tester (D), and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is facing a battle with Republican Bernie Moreno. There is. The open Michigan Senate seat is also rated as a toss-up.
But while Wisconsin Democrats acknowledged signs of a close race in the Senate race, most said they were not surprised to see such a close race in a purple state, preferring Baldwin to Hovde. They argue that the incumbent has the power to stop it.
“This race is always going to be close, which is why Tammy Baldwin works every day to unite Wisconsinites from all walks of life to win,” Baldwin campaign spokesperson Andrew Mamo said in a statement.・Told Hill in a statement.
Melissa Balduff, a Democratic strategist based in Milwaukee, also said she always expected the race to be close, but still expected Baldwin to win. She has seen a surge in enthusiasm among young Wisconsin voters, energized by Baldwin and Harris, and suggested the latest polls may not fully reflect the demographics. did.
Brandon Scholz, a former Republican strategist in the state, said independents will decide the race as Democrats and Republicans become more united behind their respective candidates.
Baldwin and Hovde are scheduled to debate next week, and their showdown could be one of the candidates' last chances to make a blow and sway undecided voters, he added.
“Wisconsin is a very, very, very partisan state. We're very polarized here,” Scholz said. “My sense is that what happens in the next three to a few weeks is that the people who will really decide whether it's going to be Harris or Trump or Hovde or Baldwin are going to be undecided ticket splitters, independents, maybe doubles. Haters. I believe it's close to that, and I believe that's what's left.”
