New York state's population could decline by more than 2 million people by 2050, a drop of more than 13%, according to a shocking new study.
The population is projected to decline significantly as declining birth rates and aging and dying populations are not offset by new arrivals from abroad, according to a report by researchers in the Applied Demography Program at Cornell University's School of Public Policy. There is.
“This forecast confirms what we've been seeing: Demographic trends within the state are “If things don't change, the population will continue to decline.” cornell chronicle.
“Conservative estimates suggest a population decline of 1 million people by 2050, but we believe an even larger population decline is likely.”
The population could decline from 19.7 million to around 17 million or less by 2050, according to the study.
The analysis estimates that the number of children born to age 17 will decline by 10% to 25% over the next 25 years due to declining birthrates.
New York state has particularly suffered population declines during and after the coronavirus pandemic, leading to mass deaths and displacement from states ravaged by the disease.
The impact of population decline is serious.
New York could lose influence in the U.S. Congress by losing House seats to states with growing populations such as Florida and Texas.
Researchers plan to provide specific county-by-county population projections next spring.
Vink said domestic migration flows are the biggest driver of population change in New York state, but also the most difficult to predict.
One thing is clear: The long-term trend is that more New Yorkers are moving out of state than from other parts of the country.
Historically, immigrants arriving from abroad have offset domestic outflows, especially in the New York City area.
There are some caveats.
Researchers say the estimates do not account for the tens of thousands of migrants who arrived in large numbers recently.
Meanwhile, President-elect Donald Trump's pledge to strengthen borders and deport thousands of migrants could also affect migration flows.
