President-elect Donald Trump's return to an “America First” foreign policy marks the beginning of a new era in U.S.-Europe relations, with significant implications for both sides of the transatlantic alliance.
By design of the Constitution, the U.S. president has considerably more power to direct foreign policy than domestic policy, which is strange. not lost About European leaders.
They must now prepare for a United States that reportedly hates U.S.-Europe relations more than it did the last time Trump was commander in chief.
Unfortunately, it is unlikely that Europe has achieved enough or even be able to stand on its own two feet without the American crutch.
Indeed, the Transatlantic Alliance survived President Trump's first term, but we now live in a markedly different world as the increasingly bellicose axis of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea continues to undermine global security. It becomes.
Quite simply, the Trump administration is unlikely to heed calls for increased engagement on issues like the Ukraine war or NATO cooperation at a time when Europe, and indeed the free world, needs a strong United States.
Europe and NATO will now need to find ways to fill the void left by the significant withdrawal of US aid.
So far, the most important consequence of President Trump's return will be the end of U.S. support for Ukraine in its self-defense war against Russia.
President Trump has promised to end the war, but it is doubtful that his desired outcome envisions giving Ukraine what it needs to completely remove Russian forces.
Instead, President Trump is likely to push for an outcome that would allow Russia to take control of about a fifth of Ukraine, reduce sanctions against Russia, and ultimately embold President Vladimir Putin.
To be clear, abandoning Ukraine is bad policy given its merits, but President Biden bears some responsibility for the current state of the war.
Biden continued to ease aid, giving Ukraine enough to survive but not enough to win. And his arrogant restrictions on whether Ukraine could use American weapons were such that they forced Ukrainians to fight with one hand on their backs.
Trump's disdain for NATO countries that fail to meet the bloc's spending requirements is also a key issue.
Some European countries are belatedly realizing that the days of outsourcing defense to the United States are coming to an end and are increasing spending.
Currently, 22 of the 31 NATO countries other than the United States are participating. meetAlternatively, it exceeds EU countries' goal of spending 2% of GDP on military spending (double what Trump achieved in his first term), but major countries such as Italy and Spain remain well below that number. are.
Ann analysisThe Financial Times reports that decades of dependence on U.S. protection will undermine Europe's ability to defend itself if President Trump declines U.S. involvement in NATO or withdraws altogether. It emphasizes how big of a blow it is.
The United States alone has nearly 1,000 more fighter and ground attack aircraft than all other NATO countries combined, and NATO has no replacement for American transport aircraft.
Additionally, the three most powerful non-US militaries in the alliance, the British, French, and German militaries, as well as NATO's two European nuclear powers, all suffer from “hollowed out” levels of personnel and equipment. .
European Union diplomats and defense industry executives cited by the Financial Times say Europe's dilemma centers on a lack of political will, including a fragmented defense industry, and a lack of leadership without the United States.
To their credit, European weapons manufacturers have finally begun to ramp up production of new weapons systems, but Europe lags far behind in terms of quality, quantity, and capabilities.
While there is no substitute for the United States in protecting global security, the ability for Europe to tackle defense issues on its own is definitely a plus, as it allows the United States to focus on emerging threats such as China. .
Withdrawing U.S. troops from Europe would allow for a major redeployment to the Indo-Pacific, perhaps stopping China's invasion of Taiwan and North Korea's expansion of its nuclear program.
Despite its benefits, geopolitical stability comes at a significantly high price.
A significant downgrade in the U.S. relationship with the EU and NATO would undermine the world's most effective alliances and empower our common enemy.
In Europe, this risks further Russian aggression, potentially even attacks on NATO members, and will test President Trump's commitment to NATO Article 5.
Conversely, if President Trump allows President Putin to invade a NATO ally, it would expose the hollowness of America's commitment to its treaty obligations and the ineffectiveness of its European allies.
In other words, while a stronger Europe allied with the United States has the potential for significant benefits, it is not without serious risks, including undermining America's geopolitical position.
Similarly, even if Europe feels that the United States has abandoned it to Russia, it is doubtful that it will help deter China's military and economic aggression.
The United States is strongest when we work together with our allies, but President Trump's “Europe first” movement, which echoes his “America first” policy, could leave the United States short on allies when it needs them most. There is sex.
This is not to say that President Trump should continue to give Europe a free pass. The United States cannot afford to be everywhere at once, and breaking Europe's complete dependence on American forces is long overdue.
Trump is also not the first to question Europe's efforts, or lack thereof, to defend itself. Former President John F. Kennedy also raised Despite these concerns, even if the world has changed since President Trump's first term, it is completely unrecognizable from the Kennedy administration.
Rather, it says there is no way to know for sure whether Trump's foreign policy will make the world safer or significantly more dangerous as European countries wake up to a world without the full security blanket of the United States. Noda.
Douglas E. Schon is a political consultant and founder and partner of Shane Cooperman Research. Saul Mangel is a senior strategist at Shane Cooperman Research.
