President Biden's long-promised trip to Africa this month served as a diplomatic curtain call, making him the first president to visit Angola and the first since former President Obama to do so (including President-elect Trump). ).
It is unclear whether President Trump will pay more attention to Africa this time, but as the continent becomes an increasingly important part of China's geopolitical arsenal, he is increasing his global influence in Africa. The danger is rising.
President Trump will face many pressing issues on the African continent. They include whether to take a more active role in Sudan's civil war, how to use trade to offset China's massive public and private investments across Africa, and whether to continue Biden-led policies. Initiatives include a $3 billion investment in a transcontinental transportation route through Angola, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Holofelo Kugler, a scholar specializing in African trade and economics at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the United States has “lost a lot of ground” when it comes to strategic opportunities in Africa.
“For better or worse, despite their history of human rights and democracy, the Chinese have become a little more cautious and a little more careful about promoting relations with African countries. I did,” she said. “China has significantly outpaced the United States in recent years.”
The Biden administration is also working to develop and strengthen humanitarian efforts, including providing aid amid a historic drought and protecting marginalized groups such as LGBTQ+ people in Uganda, some of which President Trump He will likely be removed by the Oval Office and the Republican Party. It controls both houses of Congress.
Cameron Hudson, a senior fellow in the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, argues that the Biden administration has taken an overly zealous approach to Africa and has broken its promises.
Biden this month made good on his promise at the 2022 African Summit, becoming the first president to visit Africa since President Obama visited Kenya and Ethiopia. Mr Hudson says he has abandoned other commitments, including a strategy to “do everything for Africa”. more desired.
Hudson noted that despite promises by sitting presidents to “accelerate high-level exchanges,” they have invited significantly fewer African leaders for one-on-one talks.
But Kugler and Hudson said they were not convinced that Trump would signal a major shift in U.S. strategy in Africa, but that Trump could take a different approach.
“Which is worse? Making a promise and not taking any measurable steps to implement it, or not keeping the promise at all?'' Hudson said, “The outcome will be the same in Africa.'' ” he asked.
While Trump has made harsh statements about China, he has regularly expressed his gratitude to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and recent reports suggest that Trump has invited the Communist Party leader to his inauguration. About. President Trump has promised to impose a series of hefty tariffs on China, which Beijing says will spark a devastating trade war.
The extent to which Trump and Xi Jinping are willing to fight that war in Africa is a pressing question for the continent. Kugler said the United States may not consider Africa a strategically important region enough to confront China.
One likely possibility, she said, is that the Trump administration is “trying to kind of discipline China in terms of bilateral trade with the United States.”
Russia too increase presence The continent has long been accused of supporting private military companies to undermine democratic efforts, prop up dictators and jointly plunder natural resources.
Ultimately, Kugler said a “change in mindset” is needed for the U.S. government to truly expand its influence in Africa.
During President Trump's first term, he advocated an “America first” mentality and urged Congress to cut development investment, with Africa bearing the brunt of the crisis. However, he make africa prosper Strategies to support U.S. companies looking to do business in Africa. But he also alienated the country's leaders, pointing to the continent's “hidden” countries.
Experts said President Trump's deal-making approach could open the door to an expanded presence for U.S. companies in the region.
“Trump will take a narrower, clearer view of America's interests in Africa,” Hudson predicted. “[Trump] It will become very clear what he cares about and what he doesn't care about. ”
Asked about Trump's possible approach to the region, President-elect Trump's press secretary, Caroline Levitt, said the president-elect would take “the necessary actions” to “restore peace with the power of the world.” He told The Hill.
Restoring peace will be a particular challenge in Sudan. Sudan's civil war has been raging since April 2023, with rival military factions, the Sudanese National Army, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces fighting.
The Biden administration has taken a largely humanitarian approach to the war as part of a United Nations coalition, but has had little success in negotiating a ceasefire. Kugler said President Trump could seek to end the war, even if it means entrenching military rule in the country.
“The Biden administration was concerned not about whether the conflict could be resolved, but how the conflict would be resolved,” he said. “It was not about ending the conflict, it was about putting the right people in power in Sudan.”
The Biden administration did not respond to The Hill's request for comment.
Hudson said the impact on leaders and communities across the continent will be mixed as the Trump administration reprioritizes foreign policy.
Hudson said countries with fragile democratic paths, such as Ghana and Botswana, may not receive the same attention from Trump that they saw under the Biden administration. Other countries like ugandaIn a country where the government has outlawed homosexuality, his popularity among some powerful Africans may be due in part to the lifting of Biden-era sanctions under the Trump administration. There is a possibility that
“They see him as an authority figure, a self-made man,” Coogler said. “As someone who's not going to sit there and preach about human rights or LGBTQIA issues.”
Hudson and Coogler said some of Biden's priorities, particularly the Lobito Corridor, a multibillion-dollar investment in Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia aimed at boosting economic competitiveness, will also be part of the Biden administration. I think there is a possibility that it will be taken over.
The project has bipartisan support in Congress. Sens. Chris Coons (D-Delaware) and John Cornyn (R-Texas) released a statement earlier this month saying, “Strategic investments like the Lobito Corridor will increase competition with China.'' , which will help ensure access to critical minerals and other vital resources.” It will improve our own economy. ”
“Our national security depends on the United States' efforts combined with efforts to bring peace to the region, as well as efforts to end the long-simmering conflict between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda through the Luanda Process. It will be strengthened by continued investment,” they wrote.
The hallway is mainly supported by The United States International Development Finance Corporation was established under the first Trump administration. President Trump has named Adam Boehler, the federal agency's first CEO, as the new administration's special envoy for the hostage situation.
Other candidates for the administration include Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) for secretary of state and South African-born tech billionaire Elon Musk. can signal his competitive stance towards China and Russia;
Mr. Musk has been involved with African leaders. meeting with In September this year, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Namibia's President N'Golo Mbumba and Lesotho's Prime Minister Sam Matekane discussed opportunities with the tech empire.
