Egg prices are already high and could get even worse.
The average price for 12 large Grade A eggs during December was $4.15, up from $2.51 in December 2023, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
There are two factors contributing to the price increase. Avian influenza outbreaks and state laws regarding cage-free eggs.
Patrick Penfield, a professor at Syracuse University School of Business and a supply chain expert, told Nexstar Media that egg prices could rise as much as 20% by the end of the year.
This means the average price for 12 large eggs could be close to $5 by the end of 2025, the highest average price for 12 eggs ever.
The last high egg price was in January 2023, when the average price for 12 large eggs was $4.82. But by August 2023, the average price had dropped to $2.04.
Penfield predicted egg prices could surpass that record as early as February.
The current avian influenza outbreak, technically known as “highly pathogenic avian influenza” (HPAI), has killed a record number of laying hens, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced in a recent report. .
In the last quarter of 2024, more than 20 million layer hens died.
“Unlike in previous years, in 2024, all major production systems experienced significant losses, including conventional caged, cage-free, and certified organic types,” the USDA said.
When avian influenza is detected, farms must culle all birds in the flock. This had a devastating effect on the egg industry, as it takes about five months for chickens to reach maturity.
“Once a chicken is five months old, it can lay about one egg a day,” Penfield says.
There is currently no vaccine or treatment for bird flu, he said.
The only defense is to “practice biosecurity,” keeping chickens away from wild birds and humans, covering enclosures, and “reducing large puddles and standing water.”
Mr Penfield said he hoped the chickens would develop “some kind of natural immunity” to the outbreak, but warned Nexstar that this could take years.
“We haven't seen it yet, and it will take years for that to happen,” Penfield told Nexstar. “Also, even if this were to happen, we don't know whether this immunity would protect chickens if the avian influenza virus mutates.”
Separate from bird flu, some states have laws requiring all eggs sold to be “cage-free,” meaning the birds have not been raised in cages. These are typically more expensive than traditional eggs, even in the absence of bird flu outbreaks.
Egg expert Lisa Steele told FOX News Digital that pasture-raised chickens produce “gold standard” eggs, but these chickens are at higher risk of disease.
“Poultry can acquire HPAI from infected waterfowl (ducks and geese) and seagulls that frequent farm wetlands. Therefore, poultry that is kept outdoors or has access to the outdoors is at risk of HPAI. ” states the University of Minnesota's avian influenza website.
“Infected poultry can spread the disease to new flocks through contact with birds, people, manure, and equipment. HPAI viruses can be present in large numbers in bird waste, especially under high humidity and cold conditions. may exist for months,” the University of Minnesota said.
