The Democratic Party's population statistical issues are ideologies. They are becoming more liberal, but the United States is more conservative.
In addition, young voters, one of the most important groups of the Democratic Party, are becoming more conservative. When they continue, these trends lead to the Long -term minority status.
According to recent gallaps Public opinion pollFor the third consecutive year, the Republican members have led the Democratic Party to equalize one of the two parties or among the voters who leaned on it. In 2024, Republican members' lead was 46-45 %. It was 45-43 % in 2023 and 45-44 % in 2022.
Three years before these three years, it was in 1991 that Gallup last found the Republican members leading in this index. It was 2011 that the Republican members were finally tied up.
If this is a bad news for the Democratic Party, it's even worse. I also found a gallap The Liberal Party is still the smallest American ideologic group, and even if the Democratic Party has clearly become a liberal, the public is 25 %, 37 % of conservatives and 34 %. In 2024, Gallup discovered that the liberal faction accounted for 55 % of the party.
The rise of the Liberal Party within the Democratic Party is very fast. Despite their stereotypes, the majority of Democrats had never had a majority until 2018. In 2011, the Liberal Party was only 39 % of the Democratic Party. In 2002, they were only 29 %. In 1997, only 27 % of the Democratic Party was liberal.
In only one generation, the Liberal Party doubled the Democratic Party.
Politics is always dangerous to leave the main ideology group. That is even more when you are moving very strongly towards the minimum ideology minority. But the Light of the Democratic Party is even worse.
In the past three years, Republican members have made significant profits in many population statistics groups. 27 % to 36 % of Hispanic and 12 % to 17 % among blacks. However, improvements from 33 % to 39 % of young voters are particularly important. This is not only a historic Democratic member of the Democratic Party, but the age cohort shows a more conservative pattern over time.
president End voting in 2024 He indicated that Camala Harris's biggest lead among voters was an 11 -point margin of 18 to 29 years old. Harris's 30 to 44 years old had only four points. And of the voters aged 45-64 and 65 and over, she lost.
The danger of losing status among young voters is that if the group increases the age scale, it may be more conservative than voters today in the old cohort. The group has already lost.
In essence, the Democratic Party requires a large majority to offset the future losses among young voters who need a large majority among young voters, according to their age. An elderly cohort is especially important. Because it accounts for most voters. In 2024, 63 % of voters were 45 years old or older, and only 18 to 44 people were only 37 %.
Democratic members have noticed that they are stuck between two negative trends. Although more and more dependent on the minimum ideology of the United States, the most supportive age cohort may be more conservative, not liberal.
Obviously, the political answer to the Democratic Party is more modest. However, as recent actions have shown, they are not UD from the lost ideology of the left wing. If anything, they are becoming more and more liberal.
The early example came right after Trump's victory during the Democratic Party. Official Declare resistance to the next Trump administration- Illegal immigration,, Environmental Extremity and Transgender surgery For children. The same signs appeared in two early house votes.
At first Rayken Riley MethodEnhance the hands of the law execution agencies against illegal immigrants who committed crime. It was passed on January 25 with the support of a bipartisan, but only 23 % of the House of Representatives Democratic Party voted. The second was the protection of women and girls in the sports law. It was passed on January 14th Only two of the 215 Democrats are voting.
The reason for the Democratic Party's unforgettable political positioning has long been clear Polling data。 The Liberal Party accounts for 55 % of the supporters. The moderate group is only 34 %, and only 9 % of self -identified conservatives. The Democratic Party cannot separate from a politically poor liberal position because the majority of the liberal part of the party does not allow them.
The Democratic Party's problem is deeper than it looks. Losing to the election is one thing. Losing voters is completely different. The current trajectory of the Democratic Party leads to a long -term minority. And it is not clear that who or what you can pull back on the brink, or to keep their party away from the base.
JT Young is the author of THE Recent Book“Unprecedented attack: How large the American socialist has left.” He represents more than 30 years of experience working in Congress, the Ministry of Finance, the Bureau, Budget, and the Fortune 20 company.
