Democrats have already seen some small wins in the race under the Raider in early 2025. The party hopes to be able to upset the Virginia governor's mansion and maintain that energy towards November, when it tries to hold back GOP opponents in other elections.
The party overturned Iowa Senate seats last month, but Democrats recently ousted a conservative mayor in Norman, Oklahoma. Meanwhile, in New York, Democrat Ken Jenkins won the county executive seat, improving the party's November performance. And last month, Democrats controlled Loudoon County, Virginia, the Virginia Area State Capitol and Senate seats after a lack of party in November.
The victory continues the trend the party saw in multiple cycles of a major victory in off-year elections where President Trump was not in the poll. However, some of the party argue that more needs to be done to drive voters ahead of the first major high-stakes race following Trump's victory in November.
“I explain that most of these races simply have Democrats, with the large exception of the Iowa Senate race, which overturned districts where Democrats won by about 20 points,” the University of Virginia Political Center.
In the Westchester County executive race, Democrat Ken Jenkins defeated Republican opponents by 64% to 36% after President Trump improved his position in the county from 2020 to 2024.
Trump himself took part in the race, urging Republicans to vote on a post about True Society earlier this week.
“On Tuesday, February 11th, Westchester County executives in New York will have a key special election! Democrats have made Westchester County 'sanctuary county' to protect criminal illegals! ” Trump wrote. “Republicans, conservatives and common sense voters must receive the vote and send a message to corrupt Democrats. They will not protect any more criminal aliens. Vote for Republicans!”
The victory over Republican opponents in Iowa Sen. Mike Zimmer (d)'s 35th Senate District is one of the most notable wins given his 21-point victory in that district in November. It is considered. Zimmer won the seat with 3.5 points. Democrats also point to recent victory in the race to fill seats in Minnesota's 60th Senate District, previously held by Democrats.
“The data lets us know where our opportunities lie and how we tell the story of the state legislature's interests,” said Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “As these special elections appear throughout this cycle, we continue to do so and help people understand the strategic paths and meanings of each of these.”
Republicans rule out the notion that special election results at the state and local levels reveal clues as to what to expect from the next two election cycles.
In Virginia, Republicans point to the already strong Democrat waste in the state's 32nd Senate District and the 26th House District. State Sen. Kannan Srinivasan (D) won the seat by over 22 points two years from now. Suhas Subramanyam (D) was just above 21 points. StuteDel. JJ Singh (d) took the 26th State House district with 23 points after Srinivasan won by 22 points in 2023.
And when it comes to flipping Iowa Senate seats, Republicans point to a decline in voter turnout in special elections, especially in election years.
“The fact that state Democrats hold minor special election victory in the districts highlights the current state of their party,” Republican state leadership said. said Mason DiPalma, the committee's communications director. “They lack a substantial policy message to voters and instead rely on resistance to Trump and divisive identity politics.”
“While Democrats are engaged in soul searching, they are aware that they are ready to leverage important donor bases and challenge Republican majority across the country. We are We will continue to oppose progressive leftist narratives, and invest the resources we need to prevent it from happening,” he continued.
Democrats also point out that special elections should not necessarily be used as indicators of what to expect in the upcoming election cycle.
“Special elections are kind of unique because they operate outside of normal elections and outside of the appearance of regular elections, and have the ability to be a little more sensitive to the immediate environment we are in.” said Williams.
“We're always learning lessons from these specials. Of course, we love it, especially when we see democratic overperformance in rural Republican areas,” she continued. Ta. “One of these doesn't completely change our strategy or tell a story that is different from what we understand, and it helps to inform you around the edge. ”
Still, the DLCC has promoted its victory in special elections and looks forward to further progressing in Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Last week, Minnesota Governor Tim Waltz (d) set up a special election for the Capitol 40b. If Democrats win a solid blue district, they bring State House Chamber of Commerce into their tie. But if Republicans win, they will also regain their first majority since 2018.
Meanwhile, Pennsylvania will receive its 36th state seat and the 36th state Senate seat on March 25th. State Senate seats were previously held by Democrats, and state Senate seats were previously held by Republicans. A special state capitol race will determine who controls the chamber, and vacant rooms will leave the rooms tied together.
One of the best indicators of what to expect in 2025 and 2026 may not be a special election. In April, two candidates from opposite sides of the ideological spectrum will be squared in a race to seek a spot for the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Racing in a reliable swing state is extremely expensive and is expected to attract the attention of the public.
“For me, the next big Democratic election test is not a special election. It is scheduled to be decided on the control of that court on April 1st at the Wisconsin Supreme Court.” Kondik said. “It's not a special election, but it's a lower turnout than the president, and it'll be interesting to see if Democrats have a motivational advantage.”
